Diverging Treasury Yield Spreads..

US 10 Yr vs US 2 Yr.

For the day on Monday, the yield for the US Ten Year Note dropped just two basis points to 3.77% after having been lower. The yield for the US Two Year Note closed almost flat at 3.88%. These two yields stand at 3.85% and 3.98% respectively as I work my way through the zero-dark hours. Interestingly, the inversion of the spread between that US Ten Year Note and the US Three Month T-Bill has only been exacerbated over this same time frame. This spread is considered to be the most accurate predictor of economic contraction in the Treasury yield curve toolbox and appears to be playing along with the Sahm Rule trigger experienced late last week...

US 10 Yr vs US 3 Mo