Dollar to yen exchange rate analysis: trends before US employment statistics and future prospects
The yen exchange rate remained in the first half of the $1 = 161 yen range. It has remained almost flat since the evening of the day before, and the fact that the United States was closed on the Independence Day holiday in overseas time also had an effect. We will analyze in detail recent trends in the dollar and yen exchange rate and future prospects.
✔️ RECENT TRENDS
・Effects of US Independence Day
Since the market was closed on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday, a holding adjustment was made. As a result, dollar sales and yen purchases became dominant, and there was also a scene where it temporarily rose to the 160 yen level. However, since the interest rate difference between Japan and the US is at a high level, demand for buying dollars and selling yen was also strong, and yen was reluctant to rise. In fact, the yen rose against the 10 major currencies excluding the Australian dollar and the dollar. (The analysis of the Australian dollar is explained in a separate article)
・Supply and demand factors in the Tokyo market
In the Tokyo market on the 5th, it falls on 5/10 (every day) when commercial settlements are concentrated, so there is a possibility that supply and demand factors will drive the market price. Furthermore, the fact that it is before the weekend is also a factor that strengthens supply and demand factors. The yen has been hovering at 161.00 against the dollar and has remained almost flat since the day before.
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✔️ Future outlook
・Presentation of US employment statistics
There is a possibility that the US employment statistics to be announced on the 5th will have a big impact on the future dollar to yen exchange rate. Market expectations will change depending on the results of employment statistics, and there is a possibility that the dollar-yen exchange rate will move drastically. In particular, if strong employment statistics are announced, expectations for interest rate hikes in the United States will increase, and it is expected that dollar purchases will progress. Conversely, if weak results are announced, there is a possibility that holding adjustments will continue and yen appreciation will progress.
✔️ Impact of Japan-US interest rate differences
Since interest rate differences between Japan and the US are at a high level, it is thought that demand for dollar purchases and yen sales will remain strong. In particular, while Japan's monetary policy maintains ultra-low interest rates, when the United States proceeds with interest rate hikes, upward pressure is applied to the dollar-yen exchange rate.
✔️ Government wary of exchange intervention
・A sense of caution against exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan is also one of the factors affecting the dollar-yen exchange rate. In particular, if the yen appreciates rapidly, there is a possibility that the government and the Bank of Japan will intervene in the market.
✔️ Conclusions
The dollar to yen exchange rate is expected to move around 161 yen before US employment statistics are announced. As for future developments, major fluctuations are expected depending on the results of US employment statistics. It is necessary to pay attention to the results of US employment statistics and the associated changes in interest rate differences between Japan and the US, and even trends in the government and the Bank of Japan.
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