Dollar-yen exchange rate analysis: BOJ observation of additional interest rate hikes and progress of yen appreciation
The yen exchange rate in the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market reached the first half of the $1 = 152 yen range, and the appreciation of the yen is progressing. Behind this movement, there is a growing market expectation that there is a high possibility that the Bank of Japan will raise additional interest rates.
✔️ BOJ's Additional Interest Rate Hike Observations and Market Expectations While market attention is being drawn to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, the possibility of additional interest rate hikes is affecting the movement of the dollar and yen.
1. Controlling inflation and making policy adjustments
Japan's recent economic data shows signs that the inflation rate has reached a level exceeding the target. As a result, there are widespread observations that the Bank of Japan may raise additional interest rates to control inflation.
2. Reduction in interest rate differences between Japan and the US
If the Bank of Japan hikes interest rates, the interest rate difference between Japan and the US will shrink. As a result, the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets decreases relatively, and the possibility that yen purchases will proceed increases.
✔️ Exchange market reaction
In response to such market movements, movements of dollar sales and yen purchases were clearly seen in the exchange market. As a result, the yen exchange rate rose to the first half of the $1 = 152 yen range. There is a possibility that this appreciation of the yen will have a partial impact on the export competitiveness of Japanese companies, but at the same time, it also has a positive impact on the domestic economy through a decline in import costs.
✔️ The state of the US economy and its impact on the dollar and yen
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The economic situation in the US is also a factor that has an important impact on the dollar to yen exchange rate. In particular, in a situation where the US inflation rate remains high, there is a high possibility that the Fed will maintain a high interest rate policy, but it is also conceivable that the pace of interest rate increases will slow down when inflation reaches a peak. There is a possibility that this will cause the dollar to depreciate.
✔️ Global risk factors and technical analysis
Furthermore, there is a possibility that global factors such as geopolitical risks and trends in the Chinese economy will also have an impact on the dollar yen. In particular, as risk-off movements intensify, yen as a safe asset becomes easier to buy.
✔️ Conclusions
From the analysis of the dollar-yen exchange rate this time, it can be seen that the Bank of Japan's observation of additional interest rate increases is the main factor in the appreciation of the yen. Future market highlights include the Bank of Japan's policy decisions and Governor Ueda's remarks. Furthermore, US economic indicators and global risk factors are also important factors affecting the trend of the dollar and yen. While comprehensively analyzing these factors, it is necessary to keep an eye on future developments in the dollar to yen exchange rate.
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