Former President Trump's Policies and Their Impact on the Dollar to Yen Exchange Rate
Former President Trump is aiming to return to the White House for the 2024/11 US presidential election.
He said he did not intend to dismiss Chairman Powell before his term expires.
What impact will this statement have on future monetary policy and the dollar-yen exchange rate?
Let's take a closer look at Mr. Trump's policies and their impact on the dollar-yen exchange rate.
1. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Warnings
Trump warned that the Fed should not cut interest rates before the November presidential election.
According to his assertion, interest rate cuts before the election may work in favor of President Biden, so the idea is that they should not have an unnecessary impact on the economy or election results.
If the Fed refrains from cutting interest rates, interest rates on the US dollar will remain relatively high, and there is a possibility that this will act as a factor in the appreciation of the dollar.
The appreciation of the dollar is a factor that boosts the dollar-yen exchange rate, and it is expected that the depreciation of the yen will progress.
2. Emphasis on low interest rate policies
Mr. Trump places importance on low interest rates as the main point of his own economic policy “Trumpnomics.”
Low interest rate policies generally tend to lower the value of currencies, but their effects change depending on Mr. Trump's specific policy implementation method.
If Mr. Trump takes office again as president and promotes an aggressive low interest rate policy, the depreciation of the dollar will progress in the short term, and there is a possibility that the dollar yen exchange rate will move towards an appreciation of the yen.
However, if low interest rates can promote economic growth and attract investment, it is conceivable that the dollar will turn strong in the long run.
3. CORPORATE TAX REDUCE
Trump indicated his intention to lower the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.
The reduction in corporate taxes could have a positive impact on the US economy as a whole through improving corporate profits.
If this is realized, it will induce the strength of the US dollar and cause the dollar to appreciate in the dollar to yen exchange rate.
4. Stances on Taiwan defense and US foreign policy
Mr. Trump has raised questions about Taiwan defense and long-term US foreign policy.
In particular, it shows an attitude of seeking the burden of expenses with respect to Taiwan defense, and there is a possibility that it will bring about changes in US defense policy.
When geopolitical risks increase, yen tends to be bought as a safe asset.
Therefore, if factors of instability in the Asian region increase, there is a possibility that the dollar yen exchange rate will fluctuate towards the appreciation of the yen.
5. The return of trumpnomics
If Mr. Trump takes office again, there is a possibility that economic policies known as “trumpnomics” will be revived.
This includes tax cuts and deregulation, etc., and it is conceivable that it will promote the growth of the US economy in the short term and cause the dollar to rise.
However, on the other hand, there are also statements that they will begin strengthening exports, so it is assumed that it is also an appeal where flexible responses can be made.
He said he did not intend to dismiss Chairman Powell before his term expires.
What impact will this statement have on future monetary policy and the dollar-yen exchange rate?
Let's take a closer look at Mr. Trump's policies and their impact on the dollar-yen exchange rate.
1. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Warnings
Trump warned that the Fed should not cut interest rates before the November presidential election.
According to his assertion, interest rate cuts before the election may work in favor of President Biden, so the idea is that they should not have an unnecessary impact on the economy or election results.
If the Fed refrains from cutting interest rates, interest rates on the US dollar will remain relatively high, and there is a possibility that this will act as a factor in the appreciation of the dollar.
The appreciation of the dollar is a factor that boosts the dollar-yen exchange rate, and it is expected that the depreciation of the yen will progress.
2. Emphasis on low interest rate policies
Mr. Trump places importance on low interest rates as the main point of his own economic policy “Trumpnomics.”
Low interest rate policies generally tend to lower the value of currencies, but their effects change depending on Mr. Trump's specific policy implementation method.
If Mr. Trump takes office again as president and promotes an aggressive low interest rate policy, the depreciation of the dollar will progress in the short term, and there is a possibility that the dollar yen exchange rate will move towards an appreciation of the yen.
However, if low interest rates can promote economic growth and attract investment, it is conceivable that the dollar will turn strong in the long run.
3. CORPORATE TAX REDUCE
Trump indicated his intention to lower the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.
The reduction in corporate taxes could have a positive impact on the US economy as a whole through improving corporate profits.
If this is realized, it will induce the strength of the US dollar and cause the dollar to appreciate in the dollar to yen exchange rate.
4. Stances on Taiwan defense and US foreign policy
Mr. Trump has raised questions about Taiwan defense and long-term US foreign policy.
In particular, it shows an attitude of seeking the burden of expenses with respect to Taiwan defense, and there is a possibility that it will bring about changes in US defense policy.
When geopolitical risks increase, yen tends to be bought as a safe asset.
Therefore, if factors of instability in the Asian region increase, there is a possibility that the dollar yen exchange rate will fluctuate towards the appreciation of the yen.
5. The return of trumpnomics
If Mr. Trump takes office again, there is a possibility that economic policies known as “trumpnomics” will be revived.
This includes tax cuts and deregulation, etc., and it is conceivable that it will promote the growth of the US economy in the short term and cause the dollar to rise.
However, on the other hand, there are also statements that they will begin strengthening exports, so it is assumed that it is also an appeal where flexible responses can be made.
#投資 #ドル円 #為替 #NISA #老後 #資産 #資産運用 #pound #dollar #yen #euro #mexican peso #Turkish lira #NISA #profit #interest rate cut #index #dollar #fund #technical #analysis #education channel #DXY
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
【心理学×投資】テクニカル分析/LIVE配信366DAY ＝先進国40：新興国60 /企業案件３社/登壇実績/
410Followers
1966Following
1472Visitors
Follow