FPG 9.2 Gold Trend Analysis

XAUUSD H1

The last PCE inflation data before the September Fed rate decision was released on Friday evening, recording 2.6%, the same as the previous value, but better than the expected 2.7%. Due to the better-than-expected data release, the market reduced its expectations of a 50BP emergency rate cut by the Fed in September, leading to a strengthening US dollar. In the past three trading days, the dollar rebounded from the year's low of 100.5 to the current position of 101.8. Gold also followed the rise of the dollar, breaking downwards in the previous mentioned triangular convergence pattern, falling from a high of 2527 during the day to around 2494, but closing back above 2500. With only 16 days left before the rate decision, data released prior to the rate decision is particularly important. This week, the market is focusing on the last non-farm payroll data release before the rate decision. ADP data and the Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions will be released on Wednesday, and the most impactful non-farm payroll data for gold will be released on Friday. This will have a significant impact on the short-term trend of gold.

Technically, gold broke downwards in a triangular convergence pattern on Friday along with the data. However, looking back at the past ten trading days, it can be seen that the price of gold was resisted five times near 2530 without breaking through, and similarly supported and rebounded five times around the low of 2493. Currently, gold is oscillating in the range of 2530-2493, shifting temporarily from its previous continuous upward trend to consolidation and oscillation. Both bulls and bears are more cautious, waiting for price confirmation to align with the data's breakthrough. Monday is a US holiday, so there may be less volatility today.

The upper line resistance is at 2510, the second line resistance at 2520, and the third line resistance at 2531.

The lower line support is at 2500, the second line support at 2493, and the third line support at 2485.

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