Future developments considering the outlook for the dollar and yen exchange rate and the remarks made by Fed Director Bowman
✔️ US Federal Reserve (Fed) Director Bowman gave a speech in London pointing out upside risks to the inflation outlook and stated that it is necessary to maintain policy interest rates at a high level for a while. We will analyze how this statement affects the dollar-yen exchange rate. We will analyze the dollar and yen based on Director Bowman's remarks and consider future developments.
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✔️ Key points of Fed Director Bowman's remarks
1. Pointing out the risk of rising inflation
Director Bowman stated that risks to the inflation outlook are increasing, and emphasized that the current reduction in policy interest rates is not appropriate. This means that the Fed has indicated its intention to maintain high interest rates for a while. If high interest rates continue, the dollar continues to be attractive as a currency with relatively high interest rates, which is a factor in the appreciation of the dollar against yen.
2. The impact of labor markets and immigration policies
Director Bowman pointed out the possibility that tight labor markets and tighter restrictions on immigration policies will bring upward pressure on wages and rents. The strength of the labor market and rising inflation increase the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates, which is also a factor in the appreciation of the dollar.
3. Review of past monetary policies and future reviews
I looked back on the delay in response during the rise in inflation in 2021, and mentioned the review of the monetary policy framework in the future. There is a possibility that future policy framework reviews will show more aggressive measures aimed at controlling inflation, and market expectations may lead to dollar purchases.
✔️ Dollar to yen fundamentals (technical analysis via live streaming)
1. Japan's monetary policy
The fact that the Bank of Japan still maintains an accommodative monetary policy is a factor in the rise in the dollar and yen. While the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged, the situation where the Fed maintains high interest rates encourages the appreciation of the dollar and depreciation of the yen due to widening interest rate differences.
2. Geopolitical risks and economic indicators
If US economic indicators (employment statistics, CPI, etc.) exceed expectations, expectations for additional interest rate increases from the Fed will increase, and there is a possibility that dollar purchases will progress. As geopolitical risks and trade friction tensions increase, there is a possibility that yen will be bought as a safe asset, but it is expected that the dollar will continue to have an advantage while the current Fed's hawkish stance is strong.
✔️ Conclusions
Based on Fed Director Bowman's statement, since the Fed indicated a policy to maintain high interest rates, there is a high possibility that the dollar yen will continue to maintain an upward trend. However, since it is affected by economic indicators and geopolitical risks in the short term, it is necessary to keep a close eye on these trends.
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