Global interest rate cuts are still in full swing
As the world's major central banks decide monetary policies, there is a possibility that each country will show an attitude of hesitating to participate in the interest rate cut cycle. Of particular interest is the trend of central banks in the United Kingdom, Australia, Norway, and Switzerland.
✔️ The influence of the United States and the stance of each country
Last week, the US monetary authorities retreated their monetary easing outlook for the end of the year. This is due to the judgment that inflation control has not yet been fully achieved. Therefore, an attitude of carefully determining the timing of interest rate cuts has been shown. The central banks of the United Kingdom, Australia, and Norway are similarly not seen in a situation where they are rushing to cut interest rates at this week's meeting. In particular, there is a growing view that the Bank of England (BOE) in the UK will wait until at least August for interest rate cuts since the general election is approaching and upward pressure on prices continues. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Norwegian Central Bank have also shown a cautious stance against interest rate cuts so far. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates once in March, but views on additional interest rate cuts are divided, and there is a high possibility that it will remain unchanged for the time being.
✔️ This week's featured materials
Retail sales in the US, various economic statistics in China, and the consumer price index (CPI) of the UK and Japan are cited as notable materials for this week's market.
・US retail sales
It is an important indicator showing consumption trends, and is important for measuring the soundness of the US economy. If growth is higher than expected, there is a possibility that the outlook for monetary easing will decline further.
・China's economic statistics
The focus is on the recovery situation in the manufacturing and service industries. These statistics may have a major impact on the market as indicators showing the degree of recovery of the Chinese economy.
・UK and Japan CPI
It is very important in considering the impact of the inflation rate on monetary policy. In the UK in particular, the economic situation before the general election is being closely watched, and if prices continue to rise, there is a high possibility that interest rate cuts will be postponed.
✔️ Views on the dollar and yen
Based on the current state of monetary policy, a major impact is expected on the trend of the dollar and yen. Since the US has retreated its monetary easing outlook for the end of the year, there is a possibility that the dollar will remain strong. Meanwhile, since the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-low interest rate policy, it is thought that developments involving relatively weak yen will continue. There is a possibility that the UK and Japan's CPI announcements will have a direct impact on the dollar-yen exchange rate. In particular, if Japan's CPI exceeds expectations, there is a possibility that the Bank of Japan will be forced to review monetary policy, and this may be a factor in the appreciation of the yen. However, at present, the rise in yen is thought to be limited, and the dollar yen is expected to maintain an upward trend.
✔️ Future prospects
As a future outlook, whether or not major central banks will cut interest rates depends on how to determine the balance between progress in controlling inflation and economic growth. In the US and Europe in particular, the focus is on whether the inflation rate approaches target levels, and various economic indicators have a major impact on monetary policy decisions.
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