Global markets fracture after Fed forecasts fewer rate cuts 2025. Nvidia bounces on unveiling world’s smallest, cheapest AI supercomputer
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There could be more dark days for markets as traders adjust for half as many rate cuts in the US as they hoped for in 2025.
Already overnight, US stocks suffered their biggest drop since early August. The Nasdaq $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ lost 3.6%, the S&P 500 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ almost 3%. It’s clear markets are reacting negatively—they didn’t get the early Christmas present they hoped for. Yes, the US Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point, its third rate cut this year. But its revised economic outlook, with higher core inflation and higher economic growth, is causing traders to adjust their portfolios. And the Fed now only sees two potential rate cuts in 2025—half the previous forecast. So traders quickly moved to price that in. That’s why the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 all bled. Defensive sectors such as healthcare services, agricultural machinery, and healthcare REITs saw the strongest gains.
The next question is: How long will this sell-off go for?
As stocks in the S&P 500 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ closed at their lows of the day, that suggests more dark days could be ahead before they resume their long-term uptrend. Traders will weigh up that the Fed says it needs to be cautious, and those two potential rate cuts for next year are not certain.
You’d also expect traders to be selective and perhaps buy the dip, which we're starting to see after-hours.
Some traders believe they can scoop up bargains at these levels, which is why Nvidia $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Microsoft $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and Meta $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ shares are all higher after-hours, giving hope for a potential rebound. But we have to wait and see what happens in the US market's Thursday and Friday sessions before rebound hopes are alive.
Nvidia investors buy the dip thanks to two good news stories supporting its long term story
Nvidia shares are up up 1.1% after-hours at $130.04 after falling 1.1% to $128.91 in normal hours. Nvidia unveiled its $249 generative AI supercomputer. It's the most affordable generative AI computer yet. It fits in your hand and can power humanoids and large language models. It’s a game-changer, really. Meanwhile, positive news flows around Microsoft buying nearly 500,000 of Nvidia’s flagship Hopper chips this year.
As for the Australian share market, it opened 1.9% lower in early trade and is under pressure as traders adjust for fewer US rate cuts.
Debt-buying ASX company Credit Corp $Credit Corp Group Ltd (CCP.AU)$ is up 5.4%, its biggest gain in 20 weeks. Meanwhile, Iress $IRESS Ltd (IRE.AU)$ shares are about 3% higher after Morgans upgraded the stock. Treasury Wine $Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE.AU)$ is also higher after the company expanded its Californian business.
As for other markets are reacting negatively to the Fed, as you’d expect. The US dollar rose to its highest since November 2022. That pushed the Aussie dollar off a cliff, and it fell 1.8%. Meanwhile, the higher dollar triggered selling in almost every commodity. Silver is down the most, almost 4%. Gold is 2% lower. Meanwhile, gas prices are higher.
As for other market shocks to be on your toes about—the Bank of Japan meets today and is expected to hold rates at 4.75%...with three 0.25% hikes expected in 2025. But any hints of more aggressiveness could really hurt global sentiment, as things are fragile. But the sell-off won’t last forever. We will just need to get through this digestion period.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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