教養チャンネル wrote a post · Oct 13, 2023 10:16

GOLD futures technical analysis + US CPI

● NY financial market

US consumer price index growth exceeded market expectations. Long-term interest rates rose, and the dollar-yen weakened to the mid-149 yen range. The growth of US CPI in September exceeded market expectations, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve's prolonged monetary tightening. Long-term interest rates rose to the 4.7% range.

GOLD futures technical analysis + US CPI

● Awareness of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US

Selling yen, strong movements of buying dollars with expected yields led to a strong yen depreciation to the mid-149 yen level.
Concerns about the impact of the rise in long-term interest rates on the economy led to an increase in sell orders for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 300 points.

The closing price was $173.73 lower than the previous day, at $0.36314 million.

Long-term interest rates in the United States are rising again in response to the growth of the Consumer Price Index. It is impossible to predict how far the depreciation of the yen will go. Concerns about intervention by the Bank of Japan tested around 149.7 but it is currently in a range-bound movement.

● INPEX

Natural gas development project 'Abadi' planned in Indonesia has emerged. The total project cost is on the scale of 3 trillion yen, aiming to return the carbon dioxide (CO2) generated during the development process back into the gas field, conducting sustainable resource development.

● CPI Statistics

Supporting the rationale for maintaining the policy interest rate at a high level. Regarding inflation data, it symbolizes how a robust labor market is supporting consumer demand. The policy interest rate is not believed to be sufficiently contractionary.

● 0.25 point rate hike by the end of the year

Postponement of the inflation victory declaration. Probability of an additional 0.25-point rate hike is about 40%. Senior officials from the Japanese Ministry of Finance have reaffirmed that excessive exchange rate volatility is a problem according to the G7.

●Bitcoin VS Gold

The digital asset platform Matrixport believes that Bitcoin is superior to digital gold. Bitcoin is not just limited to being a "digital gold," but is paving the way for diversification. Reasons include innovation in asset transfer, being a speculative target for institutional investors, and having high attractiveness as a risk hedge.

●Physical Bitcoin ETF

Impact of Bitcoin ETF Approval The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing applications from over 10 fund managers including the U.S. financial giant BlackRock to list trust funds holding physical bitcoins and offer exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Approval of a physical Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is expected to have a significant impact on the market. Comparing the market capitalization of Bitcoin ($540 billion) to physical gold ($12.3 trillion), there is a potential for an inflow of funds of $20 billion to $30 billion into Bitcoin ETFs.

●GOLD Futures Technical Analysis

Resistance line at 2000.0, support line at 1600.0. Since 2020, it has followed an ascending flag chart pattern, but the upper limit is under pressure with the occurrence of a shooting star. With the background of rising U.S. interest rates, gold is currently on a downward trend in the short term. It is necessary to consider not making changes to long-term portfolios and to keep an eye on rebalancing in the short term. In terms of RSI and MACD, neither has touched their respective significant lows, indicating a high possibility of further decline.