Growing with Tesla: never leave, stand together in the wind and rain, share the joys and sorrows.

Design profit models according to statistical patterns.

1. Statistical patterns of institutional activities. (1) Large block orders' controlling pattern (index range pattern). (2) Active patterns of strong block orders in stages.

2. Effective patterns of tactics. JC has already summarized numerous tactics to identify which tactics are effective in the current stage.

3. The active rules of individual stocks. (1) The rule of strength stocks. Some individual stocks are very strong as long as the market becomes strong (with the gene of pushing up), should find such stocks during review and track in the long term. (2) The rule of major block orders heavy holdings stocks. Mainly like the block orders for American retirement accounts (IRA) and 401(K) fund accounts.VanguardThe activity rule of holding shares - firmly adhere to long-term investment and holding high-growth technology stocks (protective fund and deep decline rebuy fund are the two ace block orders for investment).

Growing with Tesla: never leave, stand together in the wind and rain, share the joys and sorrows.

The rules of market volatility. (1) Trend rules. Main trend classifications: uptrend, downtrend, sideways range, bipolar, differentiation (who are the strong and weak index). (2) Rhythm rules. Main rhythm classifications: time, performance after big bullish and bearish moves, MACD, etc.

Finally, it is emphasized that for professional investors, analytical ability is very important, and statistics and investigative abilities are equally important.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: "This New Engine Will DESTROY All Electric Cars."

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: "This new engine will destroy all electric cars."

The key is the original ability in science and technology, not just blindly imitating and taking shortcuts.

After visiting the Austin factory on site, Bank Of America (BofA) gave Tesla a target price of $400.

BofA analyst John Murph stated confidence in Tesla's growth prospects for 2025 and beyond, with autonomous driving and siasun robot&automation business leading the growth. FSD is making significant progress, adoption rates are increasing, Optimus development is expected to accelerate, and new car models next year will expand the total addressable market size (TAM).

Tesla reached a two-year high overnight, with multiple brokerages raising their target prices for the company. After visiting Tesla's Texas Gigafactory, BofA analysts furtherraised Tesla's target stock price by $50 to $400.

Analyst John Murph of Bank of America mentioned in Thursday's report:

After visiting Musk's Texas-based Austin super factory, which included meetings with the investor relations department, factory tours, and test drives, there is confidence in the growth prospects for 2025 and beyond. The reason is the belief that autonomous driving and siasun robot&automation business will lead the growth.

Murph further stated:

Tesla is expected to continue to improve its profit margin, currently mainly driven by hardware, but with the growth of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and charging services, it will shift more towards value-added software.

It is expected that Tesla's sales will reach $123.171 billion in 2026, with an improvement in operating margin. Net income and free cash flow are expected to grow significantly in 2025 and 2026. We reiterate a buy rating and raise the target price from $350 to $400, based on a multiple of 60 times enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA).

FSD has made significant progress, with Optimus development expected to accelerate.

Murph pointed out in the report:Tesla demonstrated significant progress in FSD technology and is expected to launch autonomous ride-hailing services in the future.：

Tesla的FSD技术在异常路况下表现出色，预计干预频率将降至每0.01 million英里一次，这接近安全推出自动驾驶出租车业务的要求。

For reference, Waymo's robot taxi service has been in operation before reaching the milestone of intervening once every 17,000 miles, Tesla believes that with the growth of its Artificial Intelligence computing power (as of the end of October, 50,000 H100 chips have been installed and activated), it will soon reach this milestone.

展望明年，Murph预计，新车型将扩大可获取市场总规模（TAM），全自动驾驶（FSD）的采用率正在增加：

Tesla计划在2025年上半年推出一款成本更低的车型，这将增加可获取市场总规模，预计这款车的成本将低于0.03 million美元，包括目前在美国可获得的7500美元电动汽车税收抵免。Tesla还确认，低成本车型不会是其2025年唯一的新车型。

此外，FSD的采用率正在上升，截至2023年第一季度，Tesla在1.8 million辆符合条件的车辆上有0.4 million订阅用户，在2024年第二季度和第三季度，订阅用户的数量增长速度超过了符合条件的车辆数量。Tesla之前曾为FSD收取几千美元的预付费用，但自从改为订阅模式后，FSD的采用率增长得更快。

In addition, the development of Optimus may be accelerated, as Murph stated:

Currently, Optimus is used for sorting 4680 battery cells inside the factory and is being tested in multiple scenarios. Tesla plans to deploy 1000 Optimus robots in its factories by the end of 2025. Optimus currently accounts for only a single-digit percentage of Tesla's computing resources. With the maturity of robotaxi technology, this will accelerate the development of robot technology and improve production efficiency in 2026 and beyond.

① Elon Musk's artificial intelligence startup xAI has completed a $6 billion new financing, with a valuation exceeding $40 billion. ② xAI was founded by Musk in 2023 and completed a $6 billion financing in May of this year, with a valuation of $24 billion at that time.

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Elias Chen

成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。

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