NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 133.230 TSLA
Tesla
-- 403.310 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 117.320 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 6.0500 DJT
Trump Media & Technology
-- 42.910 
Hard Lessons: When Confidence Turns to Overconfidence
Looking back on my recent trade, I’ve learned some hard lessons. Just days ago, I closed out several positions in Chinese stocks and YINN calls, capturing profits and turning them into a $6,000 investment. My goal? To roll those profits into even bigger gains. I had faith in China’s policy-driven market and assumed their aggressive stimulus would drive the rally even higher.
However, the outcome was far from what I expected. I bet heavily on YINN, a 3x leveraged ETF tracking the top 50 Chinese companies listed on the Hong Kong Exchange. It seemed like a smart move, but on October 8, as China’s government announced policies that fell short of expectations, the market tanked. A-shares in China initially surged by 10%, only to close with a 4% gain. In stark contrast, Hong Kong-listed stocks plunged 5-7% and kept falling. This non-synchronization between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks caught me completely off-guard.
What’s worse is that my YINN calls—bought at $12—collapsed in value as the ETF dropped 30% on the first day and another 20% the next. I had $6,000 in pure profit, but now I’m left with just over $1,000. To make matters worse, I was confident this play would deliver huge returns. The theory made sense: I was betting on China’s stimulus to drive stocks higher, and with YINN’s leverage, a strong rally could’ve meant 100%+ returns. Instead, my optimism became overconfidence, and the 80% drop hit hard.
Still, I took comfort in one thing: my losses were limited because I used options. If I’d bought shares outright, my losses could’ve been far worse. The option strategy protected me from a more devastating hit, capping my risk at $6,000. It’s a small consolation, but a lesson I’ll take forward.
The bigger lesson, though, was realizing that Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks don’t always move in tandem. I had assumed they would rise together, but this divergence exposed a gap in my understanding. It showed me that, while Chinese policies can create market euphoria, they can also bring devastating disappointment when they fail to meet expectations. On October 8, China hyped the markets but delivered too little, too late. Investors felt betrayed, triggering a massive selloff that hammered both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.
What now? I’ve decided to hold my YINN calls until October 12. There’s still a chance that China’s government could course-correct, releasing stronger measures to restore market confidence. My expectations are lower this time—I'm not hoping for huge profits—but I do hope for some recovery to minimize my losses. If they surprise the market with bold action, I might recoup part of my investment. But if not, I’ll take this as a painful, yet valuable, lesson.
In the end, this experience has reminded me of the unpredictability of markets and the risks of being overconfident. I’ll be watching carefully, hoping for a rebound but prepared for further losses.
Let’s see what the 12th brings.
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Long-term value investor, focused on identifying undervalued stocks through thorough market analysis and fundamentals.
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KC8989 : Buying actual shares will also cap losses. Promoting options is fine, but please ensure the information is not misleading.
BuyLowSellHighTrader : Option reacts 5x faster than the underlying stock price. it’s a double edged sword.
Radioactive Sashimi : Some basic technical analysis could have prevented this loss, its really not that difficult
Skyler12 : In fact, the A-share market in China will undergo a correction today or tomorrow. For them, a structurally long-term bull market is better than a short-term arbitrage. That's why the government issued a document to cool down the market after National Day, and my friend who works in securities also received a similar verbal notice.
无心看风景xyz : Your losses are spectacular![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Mikey_7371 : So a 1 day trade betting a 2x asset will continue when profits haven t been taken ( market correction) was the lesson u should learn. What goes up must come down. Yinn will be volatile
杜员外 : This is Singapore, not Hong Kong
AaronW : Already tripled and still going for options?
kheldarX : stay strong
. thanks for the honest reflection 
溫馨提示 : Buy U S stocks (M7 )
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