If it's a recession risk, keep an eye on VIX, and there are voices saying that incorporating spreads is insufficient
2024/8/14 5:27 JST (some excerpts)
Credit spreads for investment-grade corporate bonds are significantly lower than historical averages
“VIX assesses risk more appropriately” - Gelfand
The stock market and bond market are sending different signals about the possibility of a US recession (recession). Some leading investors have also pointed out that excessive carelessness can be seen in the credit market.
The volatility index (VIX), known as the fear index due to market turmoil last week, temporarily rose to a high level since the novel coronavirus epidemic in March 2020. Meanwhile, although the average credit spread for investment-grade corporate bonds expanded the most since November last year, it is still far below the past average, far from when a serious burden was placed on the economy.
Credit spreads for investment-grade corporate bonds are significantly lower than historical averages
“VIX assesses risk more appropriately” - Gelfand
The stock market and bond market are sending different signals about the possibility of a US recession (recession). Some leading investors have also pointed out that excessive carelessness can be seen in the credit market.
The volatility index (VIX), known as the fear index due to market turmoil last week, temporarily rose to a high level since the novel coronavirus epidemic in March 2020. Meanwhile, although the average credit spread for investment-grade corporate bonds expanded the most since November last year, it is still far below the past average, far from when a serious burden was placed on the economy.
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