If Not for Economic Reasons, Then Why?
Why this is a bit on the unusual side, is that such large rate cuts, especially when coupled with such dovish signaling, is usually reserved for dire circumstances that could act as a catalyst for economic contraction or outright recession. While I have been outspoken in providing my thoughts that the economy was weaker than is implied by the GDP data and have pointed at GDI data that has been much weaker than GDP, GDI is still not in contraction.
Powell failed to answer adequately, Mike Mckee's (Bloomberg News) question asking if the Fed was no longer data-dependent, but now proactive or pre-emptive as all Powell kept saying was that while the change in policy and trajectory was not made in response to failing economic conditions, but to "recalibrate" policy. Powell used the term "recalibrate" multiple times. One thing is certain... Powell did not seem himself.
Quite understandably, after uncharacteristically being unable to provide economic reasons for taking such aggressive action, Powell and his crew faced multiple accusations overnight of possibly acting for other than economic or even for overt political purposes. While we search for answers, there remains the possibility that Powell sees the economy as weaker than he let on, or about to weaken more quickly than he let on. That at least would better explain the actions taken. Regardless, we are amphibious. Any environment. We thrive.
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