教養チャンネル wrote a post · Dec 27, 2024 08:22

Industrial production index fell for the first time in 3 months, with recession risks emerging due to sluggish automobiles and machinery.

✔️ Production Index
In November, the industrial production index was 101.7, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous month. The first decline in three months.

Primary Factors
The sluggish performance of the machinery and automobile industries is the main cause.

Comparison with Forecast
Exceeding private forecasts (-3.4% decline).

Trends by Industry
11 industries out of 15 industries decreased. Shrinking across a wide range of industries.

Maintaining a cautious stance.
To be maintained.
No signs of a recovery trend.

Background factors
Slowdown in overseas demand (USA, Europe, China) and sluggish domestic capital investment.

✔️ Market impact
Stock market
Automobile and machinery-related stocks are under pressure.

Foreign exchange market.
Potential for a weak yen due to concerns about economic downturn.

Points to watch in the future.
Influence of the USA and China economies.
Wage trends in the spring labor offensive.
Temporary possibility of production recovery due to year-end demand.

【Educational Perspective】
Industrial production index in November dropped for the first time in 3 months. Particularly, the production of industrial machinery and automobile industry struggled, believed to be influenced by sluggish domestic and overseas demand.
Overall, out of 15 industries, 11 industries are declining, highlighting a widespread weakness.
However, the results exceeded expectations, acting as a somewhat dampening factor on the market's pessimism.
On the other hand, the overall assessment being considered as "two steps forward, one step back" indicates many uncertainties in the production recovery.
The economic trends in the USA and China, as well as wage increases during the spring labor negotiations, are expected to have a significant impact on future production trends.
In particular, if the recovery of the automobile industry lags behind, there is a higher risk of a downward trend for the overall domestic economy.
In the short term, it is essential to monitor how much end-of-year demand will support production.

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教養チャンネル

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