Interest rate cuts/fire cuts?
US Bonds
The inversion of US bond interest rates continues. The 2-year-10-year inversion narrowed to 9bps last week, and is now at 16bps.
North American neighbor Canada cut rates twice in a row last week, and the magnitude of the cuts was as expected, with no major changes. Currently, it is at 4.5%, which is already a 50bps cut, and judging from the trend of its bond yields, the inversion has formed an inverted rightward sloping straight line, and the inverted yield curve continues.
Looking back at recent US data, we can see that the US economic data can still be said to be in the past, the quarterly gdp released on July 25th was 2.8%, higher than the market expectation of 2.0%. This is likely to be the United States to walk the soft road of the trend it!
And more importantly, the Fed's central bank chairman Powell even put forward the early rate cut remarks, not waiting for inflation back down to 2% of the position.
It is clear that the Fed also believes that inflation is unlikely to fall to 2%, with the current cpi at 3.0%. Last week there was also a big fluctuation in the US stock market, as well as a change in the currency market, but bond rates are still in a state of flux, and the range of change is not large.
The 10-year bond rate is obviously down slightly, from the daily chart view has broken the 4% support level, if the Fed will really cut rates in July, it is expected that the bond rate is expected to fall back to 3.8% to 4%, and then expected to rebound to the upper limit of 4.2%, fluctuations of about 10% between.
U.S. Stocks
The three major U.S. stock indices were in a big move last week, the Nasdaq futures were down from 21,000 to about 18,800 points, an adjustment of nearly 10%, but late last week it was a lot of retracement.
S&P 500 also has a similar trend, but only from 5700 points fell back to 5400 points, only about 5% of the adjustment, from the daily trend point of view, the Nasdaq is a sign of bottoming out, and the standard spectrum is still in the middle of the situation, and the Dow is in the middle of the trend of strength.
The current U.S. stock Nasdaq 100 has become the most seriously injured index, seven male into a dog male, Nvidia is from 135 down to 106 of the drop, if not the weekend's stop, fell nearly 21%, can be said to be unable to stop a plunge like pouring.
Tesla's fall is also close to 15%, can be seen is the United States stock market technology boom is a cooling point, obviously for the future of the Fed's interest rate cut is adjusted in advance, can be said to be a clear card.
The Fed's rate cut is a budgeted event, which is a good thing for U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks are moving back and forth to harvest the situation, is expected to continue.
Whether the Fed will not cut interest rates as expected, or early interest rate cuts, may be one of the market variables, if the interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market is still expected to adjust, but in the absence of systemic risk trends, the U.S. stock market can be said to be an adjustment to the decline, the rebound can be expected.
However, August, September, October are the U.S. stocks of the month of danger, variables still exist, so that the adjustment of U.S. stocks will continue, or to look at the orientation of the Federal Reserve, but in the interest rate cut is expected, the Federal Reserve is clearly want to minimize the risk.
When U.S. stocks are plummeting more than, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is a number of times out to support the market, it is clear that there are variables, not to mention that this year is the election year, September and then cut interest rates will be on the market to form a confusion, but also a major reason. Undoubtedly, the Fed's early rate cuts are expected to enhance the Democratic Party's election.
USD/JPY/GOLD/BITCOIN
The dollar's trend has not been much change, against the dollar is back down to 153 range, spinning speculation is due to the yen's split position caused by the yen's strength for the formation of a big change, coupled with the BOJ interest rate meeting this week, there is also another variable.
Gold's strength or continued, as the U.S. stock market as firm, without much adjustment, from the whole trend, upward orientation is relatively large. However, in the face of the expected interest rate cuts, speculative gold is expected to fluctuate significantly, we still need to pay attention.
Bitcoin's uptrend is continuing, currently at the peak of $70,000, and is expected to fluctuate further in the interest rate cut environment. Technical indicators are pointing upwards, and the impetus for the current trend will depend on whether or not the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, as the market expects.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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