The retreat of interest rate cut expectations due to the upward deviation of US CPI [Interest rate cut is difficult].
![The retreat of interest rate cut expectations due to the upward deviation of US CPI [Interest rate cut is difficult].](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181432551/20240912/75bbc95222e03c02d028a117bd29114d.jpg/big?area=105&is_public=true)
Explanation of general knowledge
① US CPI exceeded expectations, and the possibility of a significant interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting has retreated.
As a result, US interest rates rose and the dollar strengthened.
→ A 0.25% interest rate cut also seems uncertain, but it has been factored in this time.
② The US stock market temporarily disliked the retreat of interest rate cut expectations, but then rose.
The yen came under pressure to sell due to the risk-on sentiment.
The reason for the trend of a strong dollar and a high US stock market is the possibility of inflation resurfacing in an optimistic mood.
On the morning of the 12th, the exchange rate of the yen was at 142.28 yen per dollar.
It moved in the direction of a weaker yen from the previous day's rate of 141.38 yen.
Because there is a sense of overheating in the short-term movement, it is necessary to be psychologically calm.
There is a possibility that if Naoki Tamura, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, shows a positive attitude towards additional rate hikes, it could be a catalyst for yen buying.
Recently, there have been frequent remarks from members of the Policy Board, and efforts should be made to minimize their impact.
On the 11th, yen buying continued due to comments from board member Junko Nakagawa, but the dollar strengthened after the US CPI data, and the yen was sold again.
Continued attention is needed on US inflation indicators and domestic policy statements in Japan.
The speculation of significant interest rate cuts has receded due to the upward revision of US CPI, and the rise in US interest rates and the stock market rally have encouraged a weaker yen. However, there is also a possibility that the monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan will impact the exchange rate of the yen.
① US CPI exceeded expectations, and the possibility of a significant interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting has retreated.
As a result, US interest rates rose and the dollar strengthened.
→ A 0.25% interest rate cut also seems uncertain, but it has been factored in this time.
② The US stock market temporarily disliked the retreat of interest rate cut expectations, but then rose.
The yen came under pressure to sell due to the risk-on sentiment.
The reason for the trend of a strong dollar and a high US stock market is the possibility of inflation resurfacing in an optimistic mood.
On the morning of the 12th, the exchange rate of the yen was at 142.28 yen per dollar.
It moved in the direction of a weaker yen from the previous day's rate of 141.38 yen.
Because there is a sense of overheating in the short-term movement, it is necessary to be psychologically calm.
There is a possibility that if Naoki Tamura, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, shows a positive attitude towards additional rate hikes, it could be a catalyst for yen buying.
Recently, there have been frequent remarks from members of the Policy Board, and efforts should be made to minimize their impact.
On the 11th, yen buying continued due to comments from board member Junko Nakagawa, but the dollar strengthened after the US CPI data, and the yen was sold again.
Continued attention is needed on US inflation indicators and domestic policy statements in Japan.
The speculation of significant interest rate cuts has receded due to the upward revision of US CPI, and the rise in US interest rates and the stock market rally have encouraged a weaker yen. However, there is also a possibility that the monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan will impact the exchange rate of the yen.
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