Will inflation reignite?
A few days ago, I thought that with the rise in the price of copper and the increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical risks, there might be a resurgence of inflation again. At the same time, the stimulus measures in China were well received. I started to feel that if China's economy recovered and started seriously consuming copper and crude oil, it would become unstoppable.
On the other hand, the rise in crude oil prices due to the confrontation between Israel and Iran seems unlikely to last. The reason is simple, the same thing happened in April. Since the two countries do not share a border, a full-scale war is unlikely to break out. Also, like in April, I don't think Iran really wants to engage in a war.
The rise in copper prices since September has been losing momentum this week. While it's not definite that the price increase is over, I feel that the tension has eased.
With the above, it can be said that the risk of inflation reigniting is not that high, almost like a wishful financial estimates. However, in the worst-case scenario of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, there is certainly a risk of a dire situation. In that case... inflation wouldn't even be the main concern.
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シャケちゃ : When the crude oil price rises by 10%, there is a possibility that it will push up usa CPI by about 1.8%.
えいきちちゃん OP シャケちゃ : In order to avoid that, the USA is desperately drilling for crude oil. As a result, there is an abundance of natural gas...lol.
えいきちちゃん OP : Employment statistics exceeded expectations. Market focus has shifted back to prices. Oh well.