えいきちちゃん commented on a stock · Oct 4, 2024 18:51

Will inflation reignite?

A few days ago, I was thinking that the copper price was rising and the geopolitical risk was causing oil prices to rise, so I thought, "Is inflation going to reignite again?" At the same time, the economic stimulus measures in china were well received. I felt that if China's economy recovered and seriously started guzzling copper and oil, things could get out of hand.

On the other hand, I started to feel that the rise in oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict may not last long. The reason is simple, the same thing happened in April. Since the two countries do not share a border, a full-fledged war is unlikely. Also, just like in April, I don't think Iran really wants to start a war.

The rise in copper prices since September has been losing momentum this week. While it's not definitive to say that the price increase is over, I feel the tension has eased.

With the above, it can be said that the risk of inflation reigniting is not that high, almost a wishful financial estimates ^ ^; However, in the worst-case scenario of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, etc., there is naturally the risk of a catastrophic situation. In that case... it might be more than just about inflation.

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タロ芋二郎 : When the crude oil price rises by 10%, there is a possibility that it will push up usa CPI by about 1.8%.

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えいきちちゃん OP タロ芋二郎 : In order to avoid that, the USA is desperately drilling for crude oil. As a result, there is an abundance of natural gas...lol.

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えいきちちゃん OP : Employment statistics exceeded expectations. Market focus has shifted back to prices. Oh well.

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えいきちちゃん

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