Account Info
Log Out
English
Back
Log in to access Online Inquiry
Back to the Top

Is Tesla about to plummet? I'm asking you if you're afraid.

Recently, as expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, meeting market expectations. However, why is there a slowdown in rate cuts next year? First of all, let me clarify that I will not provide direct answers. For those who are willing to learn, I will provide hints. Please go find the answers and think independently. Interest rate cuts and hikes have different effects. Hikes mainly suppress inflation, while rate cuts mainly have three effects. What are these three effects, you can go do some research.
Why is the market reacting so strongly to Powell's slowdown in rate cuts? Because of concerns about inflation rebounding. Why? Due to Trump's tariff policies (here you can go ask "orthopedics" to learn how they are formed). If in the future inflation leads the Federal Reserve back to a rate hike path, what impact will this have on the stock market? I know this may be a bit challenging for those without financial knowledge, so I'll give the answer directly. In a situation where the U.S. economy is already in a soft landing, rather than a hard landing or face landing, combined with U.S. tech stocks, especially visible applications of AI starting up recently, as long as the rate of return on tech stocks grows higher than the Fed's rate hikes, tech stocks may show no fear of rate hikes and soar (but the premise is, as I already hinted in the narrative, remember to pay attention to the key points).
Let's briefly discuss the direction of the large cap. Based on observation and celestial calculations, the technology stocks representing Nasdaq have not met the satisfaction level of increase. Funds will need to be rotated in the future, while individual stock Indicators have been hovering near oversold levels for several days. If you think it's about to fail, I can only hope... $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Of course, many shareholders have recently made big profits, rushing in headfirst to chase after them. Let me advise you first, remain bullish on Tesla, the trend in the major industry has not changed. However, in the short term, if you still think it will keep skyrocketing like before, pray a bit more, or else you might end up seeing it rise and fall daily, opening with gains and closing with losses, or opening with losses and closing with gains. A month later, you might find yourself wiped out. Just a simple explanation, on the daily chart — there's no clear topping divergence in this recent surge, while on the intraday chart, there are two divergences when it reached the peak between 485-488, with large volume withdrawals. As of yesterday, there were two more bottom divergences on the intraday chart, so a rebound may occur, but it hasn't stabilized above the 5 average yet. The earliest scenario could be next Monday, or if not, another Monday, for a turnaround, but I hope it delays until after the new year before rebounding. Also, a reminder, the January auto delivery volume report is about to be released. If it's better than expected, it might coincide with a rebound opportune time, but if it's below expectations, a round of sharp declines cannot be ruled out. However, the long-term bullish trend remains (so don't ask me about whether to stop loss, investing in Tesla doesn't really necessitate considering this issue unless you are speculating, or not doing your homework and just blindly following the trend– if that's you, congratulations, you've done good for others and contributed to their wealth). Just to explain a few operational logics, after breaking through historical highs, a retracement to form patterns is necessary (I already mentioned this earlier before breaking through 414), in order to calculate the next target price. I'm done with the daily chart; unfortunately, there wasn't a three-consecutive uptrend on the weekly chart, seems like a break is needed, but the good news is the monthly chart might have a high chance of a three-consecutive uptrend.
Let's talk about other key points next, risk management always comes first. Speculative operations, let me remind you, the time to losing everything in one go isn't too far off. There are always opportunities in the stock market, and winners are always few. It's important to pay attention to Trump's policy trends after taking office, the focus of the Federal Reserve's future remarks. The rate-cut plan is no longer the top priority. In summary, it will definitely go towards a strong dollar, the timing of when the Bank of Japan will normalize the rates, and this will be another chance to 'pick durian'. Trump's policies and the Chinese government's policies will significantly affect Tesla's future industry development, determining how far Tesla can go. Of course, there's also geopolitical risks, especially from the second half of 2026 to 2027. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Last but not least, don't come to me again asking if it's still a good time to buy, or should you stop loss now. Finally, I'll give you a few stock recommendations to pay close attention to.
Risk management always comes first, and gambling-style operations, let me remind you, the moment of losing everything in one go is not far off. There are always opportunities in the stock market, and winners are always few. It's important to note Trump's policy trends after taking office, the focus of the Federal Reserve's future remarks. The rate-cut plan is no longer a top priority. In short, it will definitely move towards a strong dollar, the timing of when the Bank of Japan will normalize rates, offering another chance to 'pick durian.' Trump's policies and the Chinese government's policies will significantly affect Tesla's future industry development, which will determine how far Tesla can go. And of course, there are geopolitical risks, especially from the second half of 2026 to 2027.
Last but not least, don't ask me if it's still a good time to buy, or if you should stop loss now. Finally, I'll give you a few stocks to pay close attention to. $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Celsius Holdings (CELH.US)$ $SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ $Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ No buying or selling recommendations, and I do not plan to disclose my operations. For those who are studying hard, I believe this period will allow you to have assets for your own trend analysis, which is more beneficial for your personal investment journey.
Wishing everyone a happy Winter Solstice, joy with family, and all the best! Will be going on a trip soon, see you again after the New Year 👋
P.S.: Chairman Wei Zhejia of Taiji Electric mentioned a key point the other day, Siasun Robot&Automation's humanoid robot will be mass-produced next year, as long as there is enough funding and an adequate supply of semiconductor chips.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
20
3
1
+0
11
See Original
Report
30K Views
Comment
Sign in to post a comment

View more comments...