Is the decline in the US market uneasy or temporary
1. beginning
Unease is rapidly growing in the American stock market. The closing price of the S&P 500 stock price index on 2024/8/5 was 5186.33 points, 3.0% lower than the previous weekend, and recorded a significant decline rate for the first time in about 1 year and 11 months. Fluctuations in the Japanese stock market and exchange market have had a major impact on this trend. In this report, we will analyze the current state of the American stock market, its background factors, and future prospects.
2. The sharp decline in the S&P 500 and its background
The S&P 500 stock index recorded a 3.00% decline on 8/5. This rate of decline is large since 4.32% on 2022/9/13. In particular, it is believed that the July employment statistics announced on the 2nd fell short of market expectations, spurring the decline in stock prices. Additionally, the rate of decline from the highest price recorded on July 16 (5667.20) has reached 8.49%, and anxiety about the stock market as a whole is growing.
Unease is rapidly growing in the American stock market. The closing price of the S&P 500 stock price index on 2024/8/5 was 5186.33 points, 3.0% lower than the previous weekend, and recorded a significant decline rate for the first time in about 1 year and 11 months. Fluctuations in the Japanese stock market and exchange market have had a major impact on this trend. In this report, we will analyze the current state of the American stock market, its background factors, and future prospects.
2. The sharp decline in the S&P 500 and its background
The S&P 500 stock index recorded a 3.00% decline on 8/5. This rate of decline is large since 4.32% on 2022/9/13. In particular, it is believed that the July employment statistics announced on the 2nd fell short of market expectations, spurring the decline in stock prices. Additionally, the rate of decline from the highest price recorded on July 16 (5667.20) has reached 8.49%, and anxiety about the stock market as a whole is growing.
3. Effects of the rewind in carry trade and the appreciation of the yen
The sharp drop in the Nikkei Stock Average in the Japanese stock market and the progression of yen appreciation in the dollar to yen exchange rate caused a rebound in carry trade, and it is said that this contributed to the decline in the S&P 500. Investors who borrowed yen at low interest rates, exchanged it for dollars, etc., and invested in risky assets are under pressure to secure funds for loan repayment in yen due to the progress of the appreciation of the yen. Against this background, if many investors sell their shares and the yen appreciates further, there is a possibility that the cancellation of the carry trade itself will be inevitable.
Details are explained on YouTube
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Joined a securities company as a new graduate.
He is active as a sales representative, winning the Large Contract Award.
Currently, information is being distributed on SNS as a part-time investor.
We specialize not only in the overall market atmosphere, but also in fundamental analysis using financial statements, quarterly reports, etc.
By making firm use of basic fundamentals, it has a reputation for stock market analysis, and has a track record of speaking at many seminars.
He is active as a sales representative, winning the Large Contract Award.
Currently, information is being distributed on SNS as a part-time investor.
We specialize not only in the overall market atmosphere, but also in fundamental analysis using financial statements, quarterly reports, etc.
By making firm use of basic fundamentals, it has a reputation for stock market analysis, and has a track record of speaking at many seminars.
From YouTube
4. The solidity of the American economy and future investor sentiment
Meanwhile, the US economy is still solid, and expectations for investor sentiment remain. The non-manufacturing business confidence index for July announced by the U.S. Supply Management Association (ISM) was 51.4, up from 48.8 the previous month, and the results exceeded market expectations. Also, there are indications that the impact of the hurricane was a temporary factor in the weak employment statistics for July.
5. U.S. economic outlook and recession risk
As for the outlook for the US economy, a soft landing (soft landing) is still being considered as the main scenario, but voices predicting a hard landing (hard landing) are also increasing. In particular, as market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are rising, it is necessary to carefully assess the timing and impact of interest rate cuts. The market anticipates that there is a high possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates multiple times within 2024, but there is still uncertainty about the extent to which this will support the economy.
6. Geopolitical risks and the impact of the US presidential election
Furthermore, geopolitical risks and the US presidential election are also factors affecting the market. In particular, the instability of the situation in the Middle East and the course of the US presidential election are increasing market uncertainty. There is a possibility that the Fed's monetary policy and the direction of the US economy will change drastically due to election results, so careful observation is necessary in the future.
7. conclusions
The current American stock market is in an unstable state due to various domestic and international factors. In addition to short-term factors such as an appreciation of the yen and a rebound in carry trade, it is expected that future market trends will be greatly influenced by the outlook for the US economy, geopolitical risks, presidential election results, etc. Investors are required to carefully assess these risks and take appropriate countermeasures.
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