Job Creation

This is interesting. Those of you who read my Market Recon column this morning, know that I was looking for 145K Non-Farm Payrolls (found in the Establishment Survey) after all of the adjustments were made. Consensus, according to Econoday was for 132.5K. The actual NFP print that hit the tape landed at 254K. Usually, the new monthly print is accompanied by downward revisions to past months (not the case here) and a less robust print for Employed Persons in the Household Survey (not the case here).

The fact is that this way above expectations (the highest professional estimate I has seen was $180K) brought with it aggregate upward revisions of 72K additional jobs created for July and August, making the net addition for today a whopping 326K. Even more impressively, the Establishment Survey showed 430K newly employed persons for September and a decrease of 281K unemployed persons.

The civilian labor force grew by a net 150K, while 75K individuals left the labor force. This led to a participation rate of 62.7%, in line with August and July, while the employment to population ratio improved to 60.2% from an even 60% for both July and August.