Key to determining Tesla stock prices in 2025: introduction of new models and the future of the EV market

Tesla (TSLA)'s stock price rose sharply by 62.5% in 2024. This is due to increased expectations for the company's autonomous driving technology and robo-taxi plans. However, the beginning of 2025 was tough, and the number of annual vehicle deliveries declined for the first time. While slowing demand and intensifying competition in the European market weigh heavily, management anticipates a 20% to 30% increase in deliveries due to the introduction of new models. Amid strong performance in the energy storage business and maintaining profit margins, attention is drawn to whether the company can establish a position as a leader in next-generation technology.

Tesla is one step ahead in the field of autonomous driving technology. The company's fully automated driving (FSD) technology continues to evolve, and it is attracting high expectations from investors. In particular, efforts aimed at realizing robo-taxis are positioned as one of Tesla's core strategies. This robo-taxi business aims to start production in 2026, and it is assumed that an annual supply of 2 million units or more will be supplied. Thus, there is a possibility that the profit base will be greatly strengthened.
Meanwhile, competitors are also speeding up the development of autonomous driving technology. For example, companies such as Waymo and GM Cruise are trying to expand their market share by using their respective technical capabilities as weapons. Thus, it is predicted that competition within the EV industry will intensify. However, Tesla has an advantage in being able to quickly improve functions through software updates. This flexibility will be an important differentiator in competition.
Furthermore, deregulation movements are also supporting the spread of autonomous driving technology. In particular, there is a high possibility that standards revisions for autonomous vehicles promoted by the US government will be a tailwind for Tesla's business model. Combining these factors, it can be said that the elements for the company to strengthen its position in competition are sufficiently in place.

Tesla's energy division is increasing its presence as a revenue source along with the vehicle business. The division achieved record results with a gross profit margin of 30.5% in the third quarter of 2024, contributing to financial stability. In particular, energy storage products such as “powerwalls” and “megapacks” are driving sales, and the fact that they respond to a wide range of needs from home use to commercial use is appreciated.

The growth of this business is closely linked to the expansion of the renewable energy market. As a stable supply of electricity and improved power grid efficiency are required, Tesla products are becoming an important choice for customers. In particular, as decarbonization is attracting attention as a global issue, demand for Tesla's energy storage business will increase further.

Also, high profit margins in the energy business play an important role in maintaining the overall financial soundness of the company as price competition in the vehicle business intensifies. As a result, Tesla is building a system that can respond flexibly to changes in the economic environment. As a result, success in the energy sector will be the driving force that will propel the company to a position as a leader in next-generation technology.

The introduction of new affordable models scheduled for 2025 is an important strategy for Tesla to expand vehicle sales. Management predicts that this new model will increase overall vehicle deliveries by 20% to 30% compared to the previous year. As a result, the sales scale will expand, and profit improvement is expected.
However, as a result of lowering prices, there are concerns about the impact on profit margins. In particular, when discounts are forced to be offered to secure market share amid intensifying competition, there is a possibility that profit margins will be compressed. In order to overcome this problem, an efficient production system and strengthened local parts procurement will be required. Tesla is already making use of Gigafactory to reduce costs, but further improvements are needed.
Furthermore, the expansion of the customer base also holds the key to maintaining profit margins. By accessing more markets, an increase in the number of units is expected to spread fixed costs and increase overall profitability. Based on these factors, it is thought that whether or not Tesla's new model strategy succeeds depends on maintaining competitiveness and establishing efficient operations.