Decline in US 10-year bond yields
August 9, 2024US 10-Year Bond YieldIs the closing price3.942%I was able to draw with it.
Data showing that the US service industry is doing well was announced and soldU.S. Long-Term BondsIt was purchased on 8/9.
U.S. Long-Term BondsThe fact that it will be bought indicates that concerns about economic deceleration have accelerated.
Announced at 10:30 on 2024/8/9China CPI (YoY)The result is 0.2% of the previous month0.5%It was.
It was announced at 15:00 on the same dayGerman CPI (YoY)The result is 2.3% of the previous month2.3%It was.
German CPI (YoY)It has been trending between 2.2% and 2.4% since 2024/4.
Germany Unemployment RateThere has been an upward trend since 2022/6. According to the latest data for July, it is 6.0%.
While Germany sees a sense of bottoming out in CPIunemployment rateis rising.
unemployment rateIt is a general theory that prices fall when they rise, but prices have stopped falling.
Germany Unemployment RateThe rise is seen as a slightly dangerous trend, but if you go back in time, GermanyCPIwithunemployment rateLinkage is poor.
German GDP70% is in the service industry and 20% is in the manufacturing industry.German CPIIf you look at the breakdown, the service industry is doing well.
Because when economies other than the US slow down, the trend of US bonds being bought intensifiesUS Housing StocksThe tailwind is blowing.
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えいきちちゃん : In the wording at the beginning, you are saying that concerns about US economic principles are accelerating.
However, in the last sentence, you said it was a tailwind for US housing stocks.
Seems contradictory to me, but is this consistent?
オスギと銀行 OP えいきちちゃん : Looking back on the past, housing stocks rose as the unemployment rate rose after the collapse of the dot com bubble.
Conversely, it was sluggish after the housing bubble burst and the Lehman shock occurred.
It is true that housing stocks may not rise, but it cannot necessarily be said that they will not rise.
ぴるさん : Since the scenario of implementing interest rate cuts → falling mortgage interest rates → increasing the number of construction starts is visible, I was wondering if housing stocks would rise.
Actually, the MBA mortgage application index has been rising since May, and since the number of construction starts also rose in June, I wonder if the number of construction starts rises even after July.