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$Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US)$ This thing might be pri...
$Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US)$ This thing might be primed for a rebound, but is still expensive. Like most semi stocks, another leg down would be a buy and hold opportunity.
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Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
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Jan 23 16:54
MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
10baggerbamm : when people say they're expensive you really need to qualify it because these chip companies as a group are growing 20 to 30% if you compare that to say the Dow stocks excluding Nvidia or the S&P 500 from evaluation standpoint they have far less growth and yet they traded a higher valuation from a multiple so that means you're paying more you're getting less if you look at Microsoft it trades it over 40 times earnings it's growth isn't anywhere is as close as many of the tech stocks that you're referring to in the semiconductor field. apple is only growing revenues at what 4% and what do they trade at a multiple. making a blanket statement that semiconductor stocks are expensive compared to what because if you look at all of these quantum computing companies they have zero revenue most anyways which means they have zero profits if you look at the nuclear stocks at rallied they have little to no revenue they have losses that means no profits. the saying semiconductor stocks are overvalued compared to what because I can go down the list of most every industrialized sector and they lag the growth of semiconductors and they lag the profits and they're sitting on a shitload more debt than the tech companies are within the semiconductor field
韭菜变主力 OP 10baggerbamm : P/S > 10, forward P/E > 33 with about 20% growth next year. Earnings is high quality. It’s fairly valued or slightly undervalued, you don’t have obvious deep value. But it is cheaper compared with most other stocks. However, this stock is in a down trend, so investors typically want more value to go against the trend.
韭菜变主力 OP 10baggerbamm : Another reason I say this is lke AMD today. The metrics there are close to this one, but you can see when you go against the trend, all the negativity needs to be flushed out before the trend reverses, like LULU this year.
10baggerbamm 韭菜变主力 OP : Nvidia is trading 21 times next year with 70 plus percent growth and margins in the 80% range. so if you're going to try to compare the two there is no comparison. what is earnings high quality mean? they miss twice this year on their guidance. they have two divisions that are very problematic for the company that's gaming and that's pc. pc is why Bank of America downgraded today. Dell only had weakness in their entire quarter in the PC line. so it's a valid point that's made if Dell is having problems AMD certainly will have problems think Venn diagram one fits inside of the other. and if Dell PC's not doing well you get the idea. so how is the revenue growth excellent? first quarter this year Wall Street was looking for 5 billion forward guidance in their AI business they guided four next quarter they were looking for five plus billion they guided it four and a half. this year when the stock was 174 you can go back and look that's when they had their dog and pony show. Lisa was on stage brought forth their customers and they say how great AMD is and they look forward to working with them and that's when they debuted their new GPU. their new GPU is larger not smaller that kind of bucks the trend doesn't? the new GPU is 30% faster that's hardly a game changer.. compare that to what Nvidia is selling versus Blackwell. Blackwell is 90% more energy efficient.
but do your own homework decide what you want it's your money you earned it. maybe AMD gets in the quantum computing I don't know they get to use that buzzword maybe that'll help with a few dollars in the price of their stock maybe they'll decide to divest and start building SMR reactors that might help them out too
韭菜变主力 OP 10baggerbamm : It’s also why I say it’s primed for a rebound. You still need to consider if you want to reduce when it does rebound.
韭菜变主力 OP 10baggerbamm : No way Nvidia is 21 times next year. Probably about 30-33 times P/E. You can check yahoo’s finance. Probably not 70 plus percent growth next year.
10baggerbamm 韭菜变主力 OP : you mean a dead cat bounce and that's possible it could bounce to 150s I'm not saying it can't do that I think that's realistic I could go 152 to 155 on a bounce. but then fundamentals come into play because the next quarters coming due and it's judgment Day all over again
韭菜变主力 OP 10baggerbamm : Exactly. So it’s about trading as well. You need good risk reward, either bet for a bounce with a large position, or gradually add position to average down cost without relying on a bounce.
10baggerbamm 韭菜变主力 OP : and that's why I suggested people that if you're bullish on AMD that you don't buy the common that you buy the 2x leverage ETF amdl it's about nine bucks I think the downside risk is a dollar more but you got $4 upside so there's your risk reward in the near term best case scenario.
10baggerbamm 韭菜变主力 OP : well I think you should listen to Dan Ives because he's been dead nuts on with Nvidia with Tesla and you can go right down the list when everybody hates them he's been steadfast bullish and he's traveled over a million miles not looking at spreadsheets but talking to companies all around the world. so if you don't agree on the forward growth then argue with Dan Ives but the fact of the matter is he's right he's continuously been right not on a daily basis not on a weekly basis but the big picture he's dead right on. the parties still going on it's 10:00 and it goes to 4:00 a.m. and The godfather is Jensen
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