$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ I want to bring this poi...
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ I want to bring this point up because nobody's talking about it nobody online nobody on TV.
president Trump has appointed Vivek and Elon to head up Doge. they are going in with the chainsaw and they are going to be cutting expenses any place in every place.
one of the greatest problems that exists are the hundreds of thousands of people that work at home yet the government has leases in office buildings and nobody goes to work in the buildings.
these build around by corporations some public mostly private and these buildings have mortgages that are held by Banks some regional Banks and some national Banks.
when Elon and Vivek go in and say listen we're going to negotiate terms on these properties because we don't need them anymore we being the United States so we have a 5-year lease we're going to pay you one year up front and then we're done and these are our terms. whatever they negotiate it's going to be very direct and it's going to end thousands and thousands of office buildings that receive full payment on a timely basis every month. these buildings will be vacant.
the property owners now are screwed blued and tattooed. whether they are private company or public company they now are faced with the challenge of where do we get new tenants from and if we're able to find them I will guarantee you they will not pay the same rate per square foot that the government was paying.
do you see where I'm going with this?
this is your next banking crisis for commercial real estate and this is a big one. this is your next crisis that's going to cause a major sell-off in Bank stocks and not a single person is talking about this.
not a single bobblehead online on tv has mentioned that the cost cutting of the vet and Elon Musk will create a crisis in commercial real estate and regional Banks.
remember you heard it here first.
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CountryCarHauler : I cldnt agree more..! Big fan BTW, also think so many are oblivious to what’s coming….just my 2 cents
smoothshoe : This link lays out government building ownership and other interesting facts
https://www.cato.org/blog/selling-federal-government-buildings
TWIMO (151403908) CountryCarHauler : I have been thinking what are they going to cut (but I’m thinking of how much kick backs can be had for leaving certain buildings off the cut list). More importantly, I am thinking of how to profit off a downtrend. Right now I can only think of not doing anything and waiting during down markets… BTW, will this come as a surprise to the market or people in the know like you would have advance knowledge of these announcements?
10baggerbamm OP TWIMO (151403908) : there are commercial realty ETFs. ideally you would want to get a breakdown of the list of office buildings and the cities where they are and who owns them and this requires homework but people that are smart will do this. and they'll find the bank or Banks or the publicly traded real estate investment trust that own a high concentration of these properties and they will short or they will buy puts in advance of what potentially will be a significant sell-off. and then obviously you have the regional Banks they are the largest holders of commercial real estate so the same thing you'd want to know who holds the notes on these properties which bank has the greatest exposure.
all that being said this is like a rising tide and also a drain plug that gets pulled so when the news begins to circulate about these properties the thousands of commercial properties and the potential impact it will be a rug pull they all will decline and the regional banks will all decline. but the smart money will know which real estate investment trust and which regional banks have the greatest risk of exposure and those will be the ones that get hit the hardest.
MonkeyGee : let's put it this way. it's very dangerous to take food from a lion. these properties are probably owned by Blackrock (darkrock).
102875548 10baggerbamm OP : Well said. Excellent
.
But will these big banks or regional banks go up to trump to stop it?
10baggerbamm OP 102875548 : time will tell but at the end of the day Trump's got four years to fix the mistakes brought on by 4 years of Biden and 8 years of Obama. when I say mistakes everything they did was intentional by design nothing was left to chance so Trump is going to write the wrongs and if it means that some of these big corporations are going to get a dose of medicine that they don't like well too damn bad because the gravy train is done. you can't run your house by spending 50% more than what you take in and you cannot run a country where expenses are 50% greater than what you take in. the United States is going off of a cliff every empire throughout history has crashed and burned.. everybody talks about fixing things but once again in office the game of being a politician takes over and you realize or I think that you come to the realization that it's too big that this train has been set in motion a long time ago and you might be able to slow it down a little but you can't change direction.
10baggerbamm OP 102875548 : pt 2
Trump is going to change the direction of the country he is going to stop that train from heading off a cliff. other countries understand globally the fiscal irresponsibility of the United States and last year 5 billion that's it, 5 billion worth of treasuries were bought by other countries around the world. that's a drop in the bucket and that's not enough to sustain The debt service. I think you're going to see Trump say to these other leaders this is how it's going to be you will be buying our treasuries you will be stopping the flow of drugs to the United States you will be stopping these criminals from entering the United States or we're going to not buy from your country we're going to band tourism to your countries there's enough beautiful places in the United States people don't need to go to your country and spend their money. we will build manufacturing in the United States we don't need your products. I know I've deviated as I often do from your question. but I think when you look at the bigger picture he is going to cut spending and if these banks have to take losses they're going to take losses. and large corporations if they have to take losses as well they're going to have to take losses so does this mean redesigning the properties to make them into condominiums rather than offices because people work from home maybe they have to do that.
102875548 10baggerbamm OP : Yes, agree. Fiscal responsibility is important.
The debt issue need to be fixed. Only way is to cut gov spending or increase taxes.
10baggerbamm OP 102875548 : it's not an either or it's a combination of both.
Larry kudlow who was his economic advisor the first time he was president utilize supply side economics for the basis of all economic plans. I've touched on this you can go back and search it or you can do a Google search to see what it entails. in a nutshell rather than taking your dollars and giving them to companies where it goes overseas the dollar stays in the country and it goes around several times each time it goes around and is spent taxes are generated.. so you can actually reduce prices cut prices and increase profits and increase taxes using supply side economics. and that's going to be what his focus is is a miracle wins basically the hell with other countries focus on profitability for companies in the United States focus on manufacturing focus on oil in the United States because a big percentage of everybody's paycheck goes to oil and if we're buying oil overseas that dollar leaves the United States immediately and goes overseas if we keep it in the United States the dollar spent in the US and it goes around multiple times.
so drill baby drill energy Independence is the basis of his supply side economic plan
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