NVIDIA and AMD are accelerating the shipment of next-generation GPU products to counter the impending Trump tariffs, with the possibility of the RTX 5090 reaching $2,500.

US NVIDIA and US AMD have significantly expedited the production and shipment of next-generation GPUs in response to new tariff measures by the Donald Trump administration. Both companies aim to complete the product shipment from manufacturing facilities in China to warehouses in the USA by the deadline of January 20.

Typically, GPU manufacturers carefully control the supply volume during the initial production stage of new products and implement strict shipping management to prevent information leaks from the distribution channel. In standard logistics, it was common to plan shipments with a margin of 7-10 days for maritime transport and around 2 days for air transport.
However, this time, NVIDIA and AMD have implemented an unprecedented production and shipping system since early December. Both companies have significantly advanced the regular schedule for production at their manufacturing base in China, instructing to expedite the production of next-generation GPUs at a rapid pace. This measure includes not only current models but also new products planned to be introduced to the market after January 2025. It is noteworthy that the production bases of both companies in China manufacture over 90% of all products, excluding some high-performance models subject to export restrictions.

NVIDIA is showing particularly active deployment and has planned to sequentially introduce at least 6 models of the GeForce RTX 5000 series during the first quarter. Specifically, starting in mid-January, the RTX 5080 will be released worldwide, followed by the flagship model, the RTX 5090, by the end of January or early February. Furthermore, the simultaneous launch of the RTX 5090D special model tailored for the Chinese market to comply with export regulations is also under consideration. From February to March, the deployment of mid-range models such as RTX 5070 Ti, RTX 5070, RTX 5060 Ti, and RTX 5060 is scheduled.
Meanwhile, AMD is also implementing similar emergency responses by accelerating the shipment of the next-generation Radeon RX 9000 series. The company has set aside the initially expected 8000 series naming and aimed for name consistency with the latest Ryzen 9 processor series. Production is being hastened to aim for a mid to late January market release of the top-tier model, Radeon RX 9070/9070 XT.

According to supply chain sources, both companies have set completing the delivery to warehouses in the USA by January 20th as a top priority, with the priority order of shipments starting with the USA market, followed by China, the Asia-Pacific region, and then the European market. This unusual strategy is positioned as a precautionary measure amidst the uncertainty of tariff activation timing.

New tariff policies are increasingly likely to bring unprecedented price increases to the high-end GPU market. Under the new measures being considered by the Trump administration, a 10% tariff is expected to be imposed on imports from countries other than China, while a significantly high rate of up to 60% is anticipated to be applied to imports from China. Given that the majority of consumer gaming GPUs are currently produced in China, there are concerns that this tariff measure could potentially lead to a maximum 40% increase in retail prices.
When looking at the specific impact on prices, for NVIDIA's upcoming flagship model, the GeForce RTX 5090, the estimated price was initially $1,799, but after the tariff measures, it could potentially surge to around $2,500. This price increase could further vary depending on how much of the tariff costs manufacturing companies pass on to consumer prices.

Such a significant price increase could fundamentally change the dynamics of the GPU market. Industry insiders predict a sharp increase in demand for the used GPU market to avoid soaring prices of new products. In fact, major technology companies like Microsoft, Dell, and HP are accelerating their production processes and ensuring shipments before the implementation of tariffs due to similar concerns.
However, the impact on the final prices may vary depending on the specific policies and timing of formal implementation. As the details of the policy have not been officially confirmed at this point, manufacturers are proceeding with flexible pricing strategies while preparing for the worst-case scenario. Of particular note is the potential for this price increase to cause temporary demand suppression. Stakeholders in the supply chain are considering various measures such as gradual price adjustments and inventory optimization to avoid a sharp decline in demand.

Furthermore, this situation may not only affect the GPU market but also have repercussions on the overall AI workstation and high-end gaming PC markets. System integrators and PC manufacturers are beginning to review their product lineups and explore alternative supply chains to address the rising prices of components. Such structural changes in the market are likely to have long-term implications on consumer purchasing behavior. This exceptional shipping strategy clearly demonstrates the increased geopolitical risks in the semiconductor industry. The responses from both companies are merely temporary measures, and in the long run, diversification of the supply chain and the development of alternative production bases like Southeast Asia will become inevitable.
Ironically, while the demand for high-performance GPUs is increasing due to the AI boom, these tariff measures could inadvertently stimulate the revitalization of the used market and potentially restrain the growth of the new product market. The industry will need to develop more flexible production and supply strategies in the future.