$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Market dynamic updates The most importan...
Market dynamic updates
The most important three witching days in September have arrived. Yesterday, the three major indices surged, driving global stock markets to price in the new rate cut path of the Federal Reserve in the short term (maintaining the long-term inflation target at 2%, with the dot plot projecting another 50 basis points rate cut this year, but maintaining a neutral long-term interest rate between 3% and 3.5%). This is why long-term government bond yields have risen after the rate cut. Those hoping for further decline in mortgage rates may be disappointed. In addition, I find it amusing that Mr. Powell is optimistic about the US economy. I can only say that the short-term trading logic of the market is still following his speech. However, if future employment data or nonfarm payrolls decline significantly, then the monthly chart divergence after the new high of the S&P 500 will be repaired by a monthly chart decline!
Don't think that the big rise in the market yesterday is a big positive due to the rate cut. Don't blindly rush in. The large volatility in prices is caused by the significant liquidation of September quarterly options. It is expected that the market will continue to have significant fluctuations tonight. Currently, the open interest ratio of put/call options for the three major indices is still high as of September 20th. It is not until tonight, close to the end of the trading day, that traders will truly price in the real price after a 50 basis point rate cut.
Let's talk about the key stocks:
If Google (GOOGL) can hold above $161 tonight, it will end this downtrend and return to the wide range of $162-$181.
If Amazon (AMZN) can hold above $188 tonight, it will return to the right side on the technical side, aiming for the previous high and a new high. (High probability, congratulations to those who entered in August 👍👍)
Nvidia (NVDA) is still oscillating between $111 and $122 without breaking through $122. I believe that a new round of speculation will only be ignited when the actual subscription data from Blackwell is released.
Boeing (BA) faces significant financial risks. It is expected to raise $10 billion in financing to alleviate debt pressure, but it will dilute the value of current shareholders' stocks. It is expected to decline by 10%-15%, targeting $130.
The most important three witching days in September have arrived. Yesterday, the three major indices surged, driving global stock markets to price in the new rate cut path of the Federal Reserve in the short term (maintaining the long-term inflation target at 2%, with the dot plot projecting another 50 basis points rate cut this year, but maintaining a neutral long-term interest rate between 3% and 3.5%). This is why long-term government bond yields have risen after the rate cut. Those hoping for further decline in mortgage rates may be disappointed. In addition, I find it amusing that Mr. Powell is optimistic about the US economy. I can only say that the short-term trading logic of the market is still following his speech. However, if future employment data or nonfarm payrolls decline significantly, then the monthly chart divergence after the new high of the S&P 500 will be repaired by a monthly chart decline!
Don't think that the big rise in the market yesterday is a big positive due to the rate cut. Don't blindly rush in. The large volatility in prices is caused by the significant liquidation of September quarterly options. It is expected that the market will continue to have significant fluctuations tonight. Currently, the open interest ratio of put/call options for the three major indices is still high as of September 20th. It is not until tonight, close to the end of the trading day, that traders will truly price in the real price after a 50 basis point rate cut.
Let's talk about the key stocks:
If Google (GOOGL) can hold above $161 tonight, it will end this downtrend and return to the wide range of $162-$181.
If Amazon (AMZN) can hold above $188 tonight, it will return to the right side on the technical side, aiming for the previous high and a new high. (High probability, congratulations to those who entered in August 👍👍)
Nvidia (NVDA) is still oscillating between $111 and $122 without breaking through $122. I believe that a new round of speculation will only be ignited when the actual subscription data from Blackwell is released.
Boeing (BA) faces significant financial risks. It is expected to raise $10 billion in financing to alleviate debt pressure, but it will dilute the value of current shareholders' stocks. It is expected to decline by 10%-15%, targeting $130.
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103775419 : interesting insight! actually feeling the fomo for not buying earlier :/