Probability of US recession increases - Goldman and JPMorgan's market model

2024/8/14 6:06 JST (some excerpts)
Recession probability shown by stock and bond markets rises to 41% - Goldman
Probability of recession rises to 31%, reflecting movements in government bonds - JP Morgan

In response to the market chaos that brought fear to Wall Street last week, the probability of a recession (recession) shown by financial markets is increasing.
　　The possibility of a recession is still low. However, the Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase models show a significant increase in recession probability predicted by the market, judging from trends in US bonds and economy-sensitive stocks.
　　According to Goldman, the recession probability, which takes into account both the stock market and the bond market, is 41%, up from 29% in April. The recent sharp rise is due to the forecast that the pace of reduction in US interest rates will become more aggressive and the sluggish performance of economy-sensitive stocks. In a similar model of JPMorgan, the probability was 31%, up from 20% at the end of March. Significant movements in US bonds had an impact.