Risk of sharp rise in interest rates due to the Bank of Japan's rate hike in December, insufficient anticipation of the "next" impact.

November 25, 2024, 8:10 JST (excerpt).
If there's a rate hike in December, the focus should be on the April meeting next - Mr. Okumura from SMBC Nikko Securities.
If the interest rate is raised to 1%, the long-term interest rate will be in the 1% range - Mr. Rokusha of Mitsubishi Morgan.
With attention focused on whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting, the bond market is seeing an increasing risk of a sharp rise in interest rates due to the rate hike.
According to Bloomberg data, in the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) market as of the 25th, a rate hike at the December meeting is priced in at just over 50% and is becoming a strong possibility. However, looking ahead, the expected number of rate hikes until October next year is 1.8 times. The situation is different from the March and July rate hikes, which were considered at least twice a year, with a noticeable lack of anticipation for the next move after December.