Risk-off sentiment going into tonight's GDP and Employment data

$E-mini S&P 500 Futures(SEP4)(ESmain.US)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BEARISH ↘ *]S&P is holding below near-term descending trendline resistance, in line with 5550 resistance. As long as price holds below this resistance, we stay bearish, expecting price to do a deeper drop towards 5490.00 support. MACD indicator is flat around the 0 level, showing no directional momentum.

$USD(USDindex.FX)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BEARISH ↘ *]DXY drifted higher and is now toppish, holding below 106.310 resistance. As long as price holds below this resistance, we stay low conviction bearish, expecting a short term pullback lower towards 105.590 support. Stochastics indicator is toppish below resistance where price pulled lower in the past.

$Gold Futures(AUG4)(GCmain.US)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[NEUTRAL]Gold price is currently sitting and holding between weekly support level at 2304.00 and near-term resistance at 2315.00. We prefer to stay neutral for now with a slight bullish bias. Only a 4 hour candlestick close above 2315.00 resistance will open a limited recovery towards next resistance at 2328.00.

$Nikkei 225(.N225.JP)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BEARISH ↘ *]As expected, NIKKEI reached our previous target. With NIKKEI now holding below near-term resistance at 39640, we stay low conviction bearish for now, expecting a short-term pullback lower towards 38650 support is expected.

$HSI Futures(JUL4)(HSImain.HK)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BEARISH ↘ *]HSI continues to drift lower. We turn bearish for now. As long as HSI holds below 17950, we expect price to drift lower towards 17100 support. Technical indicators have turned bearish and is advocating for a bearish scenario.

$FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BEARISH ↘ *]As expected, STI rose strongly and reached previous target. With the index now holding close to 3350.00 resistance, we turn low conviction bearish, expecting a short-term pullback lower towards 3315.00 support. Technical indicators are mixed for now with price holding above 34 period EMA however stochastics is toppish and close to resistance.

US equity indices whipsawed last night and managed to close marginally higher towards the end of the session, saved by $Apple(AAPL.US)$ and $Amazon(AMZN.US)$. The $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(SEP4)(ESmain.US)$ and $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(SEP4)(NQmain.US)$ added +0.12% and +0.20% respectively. The mixed sentiment came as the financial sector struggled just before the close of the markets as it was the US banks that were going through their annual stress test exercise. The results were not taken in a positive light despite the US Fed pointing out that the largest US banks remained well positioned to weather severe recession with enough capital requirements. The main point that stuck out from the stress test was that, US banks reported higher losses compared to a year ago due to riskier balance sheets along with higher expenses. GDP and unemployment numbers would be out tonight.

Asian markets traded lower this morning, in line with the US markets. Both $HSI Futures(JUL4)(HSImain.HK)$ and NIKKEI declined by -1.84% and -0.97% respectively. Chinese markets saw further weakness today as investors are now taking a more risk-off approach on possibility of tariffs by Canada. If Canada decides to move ahead, they would be joining the US and the EU as the third economy to impose tough tariffs on Chinese products, especially the EV market. The retreat in the Japanese market, however, is more sentiment driven at the moment along with the fact that the $Nikkei 225(.N225.JP)$ is now testing and hovering around a technical resistance price level. The $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG)$ bucked the trend and edged higher by +0.27% as banks and transport sector helped to lift the index. Further, economic data also shows that manufacturing output increased by +2.9% YoY.

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