Rumors of RFK's Withdrawal: Speculations on Trump's Support and the Impact on the Presidential Race

Yesterday afternoon, major media outlets began reporting that according to informed sources, RFK intends to end his independent presidential campaign and support Trump after withdrawing. The specific withdrawal is still under discussion, and it may involve RFK and Trump appearing together to announce this. RFK's campaign is now at a crucial crossroads; either continue the campaign, but in doing so, he may take away votes from Trump and allow Harris to win, or withdraw and support Trump.

Currently, Harris is leading Trump by nearly 3 percentage points in the polls, at 46.9% compared to 43.7%, while RFK's poll numbers stand at 4.7%. If he decides to support Trump, it is very likely to change the situation. However, the difference between Harris and Trump can be said to be within the margin of error, and it is hard to say who is leading. The real determinant of who becomes the President of the United States is the electoral college vote, not the popular vote. The elections during this period have repeatedly shown a divergence between the popular and electoral college votes.

Now, the biggest question for Harris is her experience. After all, she was very quiet during her vice presidency, but such doubts are far from comparable to Biden at the time. Harris has not yet given an off-the-cuff speech, nor has she answered tough questions from voters. Swing state voters need to know her stance. The upcoming debate between Trump and Harris may significantly affect the direction of the election.

Before the debate between Biden and Trump, no one expected such a big change to happen. Biden's old age was immediately exposed. And after he withdrew, many people thought Harris would not make much of a splash, but now the two are neck and neck in the polls, with Harris slightly leading. This also shows that the election is highly variable, and anything could happen before November.

For us investors, the environment of the Trump trade at that time is hard to replicate, so I don't have much expectation for its return. And before the election is settled, I still believe that we investors need to be cautious. The policy positions of the two candidates are vastly different, and betting on who will be elected and betting on policy benefits at this time carries more risk than opportunity.

However, looking at past history, after the election is over, it is equivalent to the release of risk, and the U.S. stock market is likely to rise at that time. At this point, investing in policy benefits will be more certain.