The economy has entered a recession!
● The United States is moving
The idea is to avoid further intensification of fighting and spilling over into other regions. US Secretary of State Blinken visited Israel again on the 16th. ・US countermeasures Conducted discussions with Iran through informal channels. Warning not to escalate the battle.
→While crude oil action is being spurred, there is a possibility that it will remain high if it comes to a standstill due to US intervention, so be careful about the bandwagon effect.
●Exchange rate fluctuations
Demand for fugitive assets is high due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The safe currency is the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. The Australian dollar is recognized as a risk-sensitive currency. →There is a possibility that rapid changes in interest rates will accelerate in the future due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment. Volatility (VIX index) will increase globally.
●Exchange Market Intervention Restraint
The depreciation of the yen is mainly due to differences in interest rates. Market malfunctions. risk to financial stability. inflation that has gotten out of control.
→The IMF does not recognize it, but there has also been exchange intervention on the 150 yen line since last year, and considering that there was a purchase of yen the other day, it seems unlikely that the intervention was canceled.
● New York gold rebound Demand for gold as a “safe asset” expanded and rebounded against the backdrop of instability in the Middle East situation.
● NY Petroleum WTI As the sense of uncertainty about the situation in the Middle East intensifies, concerns about tight supply and demand are rekindled.
● Concerns about the future of the economy surfaced in the NY Dow US Economic Index, and there was a slight backlash.
● The Eurozone inflation rate has begun to return to the 2% target. If the ECB becomes necessary, additional interest rate increases will be carried out.
→I can understand the reasons for each rise in gold, crude oil, and interest rates. Above all, Japan is still in a situation where it is easily affected by the depreciation of the yen, tax increases, wages, and imports. The point that diversified investments should not only be made in banks can be seen even more clearly.
Continuation ⬇️ from here
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