The economy shows fluctuations in strength and weakness.

The initial claims for unemployment insurance announced in August generally showed a decreasing trend, which is a positive factor for the economy. However, the upcoming JOLTS statistics for job openings and labor turnover to be announced tomorrow have been decreasing until the previous release, so if similar figures are reported, the unemployment rate in the employment statistics on Friday could also be a challenging number.

Of particular interest is the ISM non-manufacturing index to be announced on Thursday. In my opinion, the index for July, which was announced on August 5th and somewhat surpassed the expected and median value of 50, helped alleviate the recessionary sentiment caused by the stock market crash in August. However, this index has been below 50 in April and June. There is a significant chance that it will fall below 50 in August. On the other hand, the ISM for manufacturing will be announced tomorrow at the same time as JOLTS. The ISM for manufacturing has been stagnating below 50. While there are no surprises there, I think there will be agitation if the figures fall below those for July. This index was the trigger for the stock market crash in August, so I believe caution is still necessary.