US stocks rise - BOJ Governor Ueda's remarks - People's Bank of China keeps one-year interest rates unchanged [2024/12/25][Avo's Market Conditions & Global Strategy Memo]

Last night

- Due to Christmas Eve, the US market closed early. It ended higher.

Daytime today

In the illiquid foreign exchange market, there was a statement from BOJ Governor Ueda.

The People's Bank of China has kept the one-year MLF interest rate at 2%.

US stocks are up. It has regained much of the sharp decline seen after the FOMC.

There was a slight inclination towards a weaker yen at the time of Governor Ueda's statement.

Although the Chinese stock price index rose, it fluctuated.

Trader's WebFX
【Key Remarks】BOJ Governor: "The immediate focus on the domestic economy is the movements toward spring labor negotiations"
【Key Remarks】BOJ Governor: "The timing and pace of adjustment of easing measures will depend on the future economic, price, and financial situations"
【Key Remarks】BOJ Governor: "Reflecting the rise in wages, in a wide range of goods and services..."

Although there may be year-end supply and demand factors, stocks are not bearish.

While watching China's situation, there are movements that suggest easing starting from the following year.

As the Bank of Japan Governor, there is no intention to change the stance even if the yen weakens.

Looking at the OIS interest rate curve, there seems to be a probability of a rate hike within 3 months.
The 1-year government bond yield is also rising.
However, speculation about whether there will be a rate hike in January is likely to arise again.

Regarding China, I have a long position.
I assume that there will be a moderate rise due to easing as long as the stock market does not fall excessively.
However, I believe that sudden spikes in price due to news followed by pullbacks can occur each time.

As for American stocks, I am not narrowing down the stocks at the moment.
I am considering whether to go long or short on sector or factor ETFs.

Reprinted from the following blog:

The results of economic indicators are quoted from Trading Economics.

Key people's remarks are Trader's Web FX, Min-kabu FX

Global Strategy is strictly a strategy related to individual trading of Avo.
It is not recommended as investment advice for readers.
Although it may mention assets and individual stocks as topics,
I will not explicitly state buying and selling timing or risk management.
Please consider it as a reference information only.
The final decision is your responsibility, thank you.