Tesla: Heading for a 3rd-Quarter Deliveries Miss?
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The Wall Street consensus delivery estimate currently stands at 463,000 units. However, a number of analysts are sounding the alarm, with even some long-time bulls warning the company will fall short of expectations.
Tesla is set to announce Q3 production and sales on 2 October 2023. I am optimistic that market sentiment will price in the delivery slowdown but it may not be so forgiving when the company reports Q3 Earnings.
Barclays: From beat to miss
Barclays had previously predicted deliveries to the tune of 483,000 in the third quarter, 4% above the consensus. Now, the firms analysts forecast just 455,000 deliveries, down 6% from its own prior estimate and 2% below the consensus. Making matters worse is the fact the third-quarter deliveries slowdown has come in spite of Teslas concerted efforts to juice up demand through price cuts.
NewStreet Research: Brace for a material miss
NewStreet expects Tesla to manage just 438,000 deliveries in the third quarter, below even Barclays revised estimate of 455,000. However, the analysts do not believe such a miss will do much to impact Teslas stock in the short run. In fact, NewStreet argues this is already priced in since the various factory shutdowns that have crimped vehicle production during the quarter were well advertised when they occurred.
Yahoo Finance
NewStreet expects Tesla to manage just 438,000 deliveries in the third quarter, below even Barclays revised estimate of 455,000. However, the analysts do not believe such a miss will do much to impact Teslas stock in the short run. In fact, NewStreet argues this is already priced in since the various factory shutdowns that have crimped vehicle production during the quarter were well advertised when they occurred.
Yahoo Finance
Teslas valuation is not based on its current delivery or earnings numbers, but on its expected future deliveries and earnings. And those expectations are extremely optimistic. Thus, any sign of weakening demand, however small, is a problem.
Elon Musk
“We expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we’ve got summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades,” Elon said during the call. “So probably a slight decrease in production in Q3 for global factory upgrades.”
Source:
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I reflected trading experiences by writing journals. My comments are for educational purposes not financial advice.
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ZnWC OP : According to another Yahoo Finance's article, there is no consistent correlation between Tesla's changing delivery figures and its stock response. In January 2022, Tesla shares surged by 13.5% after the company reported fourth-quarter 2021 deliveries of approximately 309,000 units, exceeding Wall Street's initial projection of 261,000 units. Conversely, in January 2023, Tesla shares fell by 12.2% after the company reported fourth-quarter 2022 deliveries of around 405,000 units, missing Wall Street's initial estimate of 440,000 units.
101510493 : When is the date they announce? Do anyone know?
老✨ 101510493 : Did you mean the delivery time?
bullrider_21 : Tesla unlikely to build new factories for '1 or 2 years'. May not meet its production goals of doubling every year and 20 m by 2030.
Tesla unlikely to build new factories for '1 or 2 years'. May not meet its production goals of doubling production every year and 20 m by 2030
bullrider_21 : UAW strike and undershooting 3Q deliveries - Tesla investor 'remains bullish but wary'
UAW strike and undershooting 3Q deliveries - Tesla investor 'remains bullish but wary'
ZnWC OP 101510493 : 2 October 2023
ZnWC OP bullrider_21 : Thanks for contributing "comment".
ZnWC OP bullrider_21 : Thanks for contributing "comment".
Yisen : Production will drop in the third quarter because both the Shanghai plant and the Dezhou plant are upgrading production lines. However, delivery volume is likely to rise sharply, more cars will be sold after prices are reduced, and inventory will almost be consumed. Tesla is becoming more and more popular. Being more expensive than fuel cars is one of the main reasons that prevent people from choosing Tesla. Now that they are close to the price of fuel cars, this is a great incentive.
ZnWC OP 老✨ : Tesla announced delivery and production data for Q3.