Tesla's second-generation humanoid robot Optimus will debut at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference
The chart was too late to update as the stock price kept hitting new highs. Even so, Tesla speculators, who are still mentally retarded, want to sell low and sell low. It ended up sitting on the crater and pooping and charcoalising the lower body on its own. It really amazes me how greedy a person can be. The “principle of unmeasurability” and the “principle of spatial orientation disorder” are simply ignored.
On the evening of July 3, Tesla's official Weibo announced that the second-generation humanoid robot Optimus will debut at the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference to be held in Shanghai from July 4 to 7 to “witness the further evolution of humanoid robots.”
Here are the opinions expressed by analysts from some of Wall Street's major financial institutions before Tesla's sharp rise was announced by the media. I enjoyed the strange novel together.Happy Independence Day!
Big bank analysts support Tesla: the second half of the year began a strong rebound, and Robotaxi was a turning point!
Well-known Wedbush strategist Dan Ives said Tesla's stock price is expected to rebound in the second half of this year as the struggling electric car maker's situation is finally starting to improve.
Ives said that the launch of Robotaxi in August may represent a major turning point in Tesla's stock price. He previously called this robot taxi a “miracle model” for the company.
He believes Musk's “comeback” story will begin on Robotaxi Day in August. He said he believes this stock will rise sharply in the second half of this year. I think Tesla's stock price is telling you... the worst for Musk and Tesla is over.”
Ives has been convinced of Tesla's growth potential for years. Despite Tesla's decline of more than 21% this year, before surging 6% on Monday. The company previously announced the introduction of a new financial policy for car purchases in China. Among them, for the 1-5 year 0 interest and low interest discount car purchase policy introduced for the Model 3/Y standard battery life version, the daily wage starts as low as 85 yuan.
He said before Tesla's surge on Monday that despite the company's tepid performance in 2024 so far, he is still optimistic about the company. Ives previously said that Tesla's stock price plummeted in 2024, mainly due to weak demand for electric vehicles, increased competition in the Chinese market, and many legal disputes related to Musk.
However, Ives said these negative factors are being mitigated, especially as the situation in China begins to stabilize. Tesla has stopped cutting prices on its major models, which could be a sign of stronger demand.
“Tesla has faced huge competitive resistance in China, and now we see it making a comeback.” he said.
Ives said Tesla's second-quarter delivery data, which is due to be released this Tuesday (July 2), may be disappointing, but this may be “the last bad news” for the automaker.
Currently, the market generally anticipates that Tesla's second-quarter deliveries will once again face difficulties. According to the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) survey of 12 analysts, Tesla is expected to deliver 438,000 vehicles in the second quarter compared to 466,000 vehicles in the same period last year. Seven analysts have drastically lowered their expectations over the past three months.
This may be the first time that the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer has experienced two consecutive quarters of declining deliveries. In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 38,6810 vehicles worldwide, down 8.5% from the same period last year.
Overall, Wedbush reaffirmed Tesla's “better than market” rating and a price target of $275, which means the stock will rise 31% from current levels. As of press release, Tesla's US stocks rose slightly by 0.04% in night trading.
Ives also said that if Trump is re-elected, related profits may expand because Trump is “pro-Musk” compared to President Biden, who “actively ignores” Tesla.
Other analysts seem less certain about Tesla's future. Long-term investors and bank forecasters have warned that the stock'sThe downside could be as high as 91% ($14).Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo) strategists said earlier this year that this is because the company's business model has key issues, and the negative factors for growth are likely to continue for several years.
Tesla Q2 sales volume will be released soon! The stock price has rebounded more than 40% from its low point, and some major banks are shouting: it can rise another 50%!
According to FactSet data, the market expects Tesla Q2 sales to drop 6.5% year over year to 436,000 units.
As time comes to July, Tesla, the world's leading NEV company, is also about to release Q2 delivery data. Although FactSet data shows that the market expects Tesla Q2 sales to drop 6.5% year on year to 436,000 units, it is difficult to stop the company's stock price from rising strongly. It rose more than 8% in four trading days, and once returned to the $200 mark.
Tesla's detailed sales data should have been disclosed on the official IR website. However, a microblog post this morning also seemed to subtly reveal some sales information. Tesla said “Tesla's sales reached a new high in June” in the “5 year zero interest” car purchase policy microblog. Afterwards, they probably didn't understand it, and the editor deleted the relevant statement. We don't know how much this boosted Q2 sales, but at least we know that June sales will not be very pessimistic.
Tesla rebounded more than 40% from its low point
Earlier in Q1, Tesla delivered 386.81 million vehicles, the first year-on-year decline since the pandemic. This is far below analysts' expectations of 449.08 million vehicles. As a result, Tesla's stock price has been in a downward channel for a long time, hitting a minimum of 138.8 US dollars at one point.
However, with the release of the Q1 results on April 24, Musk reiterated the importance of FSD and after speeding up the launch of cheap models, Tesla ushered in a strong rebound. By the close of the market on June 28, Tesla had already rebounded more than 40% over a period of more than two months. In the same period, NIO, a “new car builder,” recorded only a 15% increase, and Xiaopeng recorded a 12% increase, and Ideal Auto fell by more than 28%.
Wall Street giants are arguing for a long time
Q2 sales are still undecided, and major Wall Street banks also disagree on Tesla's target price. Among them, the target price difference for “big and small motorcycles” is actually as high as 200 US dollars. However, the target price for the biggest bullish motorcycle is 310 dollars, which means Tesla still has room to rise by more than 50%.
Morgan Stanley: Tesla is the key “winner and loser” in the next round of AI investment
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes that AI data centers are currently being built all over the US, and these data centers will become “giants that swallow electricity,” putting a huge load on the US power grid. Jonas said that by 2030, the electricity consumption of US data centers could be equivalent to the electricity consumption of 150 million electric vehicles. In other words, the projected increase in US data center power from 2023 to 2027 is equivalent to adding 59 million electric vehicles on US roads, or 21% increase in the total number of vehicles in service.”
Jonas, on the other hand, is strongly optimistic about Tesla's energy business and believes that the demand for electricity brought about by the AI boom will make Tesla a key player in the US energy market.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla's energy business is expected to increase net operating profit after tax by 2030 by $3.95 billion, or more than $1 per share. Morgan Stanley values Tesla's energy business at $130 billion. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised Tesla's target price to 310 US dollars, giving it an “increase in weight” rating. That means there's still room for more than 50% upside.
Stifel: Long-term profit expectations have bottomed out, and core technical advantages are obvious
Last week, Stephen Gengaro, an analyst under Stifel, also released a bullish report, covering Tesla for the first time and giving it a buy rating. The target price was set at $265, which means that the stock still has room to rise by about 35%. Gengaro believes that despite the recent slowdown in sales of electric vehicles, Tesla's development momentum will gradually improve as the overcharging network expands, affordable models are launched, and overall technology is improved:
Judging from financial and profit indicators, Tesla's forward profit expectations have bottomed out. Gengaro pointed out that the consensus forecast for Tesla's profit before tax, interest, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in 2024 has declined by 41% over the past 12 months, and the agreed forecast for net profit before interest and tax (EBIT) has declined by 46%. Next, as “negative expectations are gradually revised,” it may boost stock prices to a certain extent.
Gengaro is also particularly optimistic about Tesla's core technical advantages and believes that the company has no competitors in the field of electric vehicles:
“Traditional car manufacturers don't have the technical knowledge required for electric cars; they are far behind in this electrification game.”
“And they don't have CEOs like Musk.”
J.P. Morgan:Tesla's driverless taxi business has uncertain prospects
In stark contrast to Damo's optimism, Xiaomo analysts such as Ryan Brinkman believe that Tesla's driverless taxi business may actually bring in substantial revenue for many years.
Brinkman mentioned that Tesla said its next wave of growth will be led by introducing low-cost models that are expected to go live by 2025, which utilize existing platforms and assembly lines rather than the next-generation platforms previously planned.
Brinkman believes this indicates that sales costs have declined less in the short term. J.P. Morgan rated Tesla shares as sold, with a target price of 115 US dollars.
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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