Reaching highest level in over 2 years! Can Tesla's rally continue?

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Elias Chen joined discussion · Nov 30, 2024 20:43

Handle the details well

Frankly speaking, being afraid of falling, not knowing how to cherish the decline, and not taking advantage of it, but preferring rises over falls, will inevitably lead to no achievement. Because you cannot get enough cheap chips. Once the upward trend comes, besides chasing highs and being strong, you have no plan. You have fewer stocks, at higher prices, and the main controlling forces often create wide oscillations, trapping you instantly. If you are someone with not very good psychological quality, not very firm will, the results often will not be too good. Why is Ronald Stephen Baron, founder of Baron Capital, the 12th largest institutional shareholder of Tesla, a billionaire and investor from the USA, with a total holding of over 6 million Tesla shares, with a holding cost of only $42.88 per share? Why is their holding cost so low? They have already made $6 billion on Tesla stock and are prepared to hold for another ten years. How much money can you make with your so-called day trading, swing trading, making a little money each time? Still have the nerve to talk about Ms. Bao's retirement money? It's just the smell of dirty money, extremely filthy, and some smelly bugs and flies flock to it. They are Baron Capital, very high-class, ranked as the 12th strategic investor in Tesla.

Do not consider establishing new long positions above 342.500. For now, those who do not have long positions and are in full defensive mode should be discussed separately. Compared to the risk of getting caught empty-handed, the former carries greater risk.

在342.500The following 337.720—355.220—326.590—320.770The region is planned and implemented step by step, in gradients and in batches, with discrete random variables, and warehouse layout.

Why emphasize the layout of discrete random variable building positions? Because the frequency and magnitude of stock price fluctuations are changing, and the changes can be significant. Without discrimination, blindly engaging in continuous functions without wisdom, no matter how much financial firepower is not enough. The reason why only continuous fire assault rifles are eliminated and abandoned by armed forces in various countries is that they cannot intelligently change shooting according to actual needs, and the firepower reserve that individual soldiers can carry is very limited.

Those addicted to making so-called quick money through short sell puts are not welcome here, please go around.

After short selling Tesla for 6 years, the result was a disastrous failure: from short selling at a $30 billion market cap to $800 billion, left with nothing but their butt, even the butt couldn't be sold as it was considered smelly and not respectable.

Ronald Stephen Baron, the founder of Baron Capital, the twelfth largest institutional shareholder of Tesla, holds over 6 million shares of Tesla stocks (with a holding cost of only $42.88 per share), a wealthy American billionaire and investor, has already made $6 billion on this stock and is prepared to hold for another ten years.

Ronald Stephen Baron shares this story:In his management of Baron Capital, a client and friend unexpectedly passed away due to a sudden event. His account, for some reason, had remained untouched. Previously, based on buying low, selling high, with planned and step-by-step, gradient and batch, discrete random variable portfolio layout, the holding cost is surprisingly low now, while the profits are surprisingly high, outperforming the returns of accounts managed by so-called professionals and experts.

Interestingly, Ron Baron publicly stated in March of this year that Tesla will reach $1,500 by 2024 and $2,000 by 2030, while selling 1.8 million Tesla shares. At the time, Baron referred to this as a 'painful' decision, primarily to help clients balance risks. Since then, Tesla has entered a long-term adjustment, not reaching its previous high until October. Baron also stated on Wednesday that he is prepared to continue holding Tesla for 'at least ten years'.

Baron also praised Musk in the interview, admitting that about ten years ago when he first met him, he had doubts about the success of the (electric car) project.If you still have doubts now, that's a different story, you know.So, it wasn't until the company started producing the Model S that he began buying the stocks. Baron mentioned that the biggest risk for this investment is Musk's health, although there are currently no issues, but only sleeping 5 hours a day is really too short.

You are not the late world-class mathematician James Harris Simons and his leading Renaissance Technologies LLC and Medallion Fund.

You know even less about the algebraist James Ax.

And the mathematician Elwyn Ralph Berlekamp, together improved and extended the mathematical computation model of Leonard Baum. Most professionals do not understand or know how to apply it in financial markets (which requires many changes to adapt to market conditions), a very small number of top mathematicians like the late Chinese top mathematician Shiing-Shen Chern,

Chinese top mathematician Shing-Tung Yau, and others look down upon this type of variant calculation model.

Chinese top mathematicians Shing-Tung Yau and others ignore it.

Therefore, Leonard Baum's mathematical calculation model became James Harris Simons' profitability sweeping Wall Street financial institutions' nuclear-level secret weapon, including George Soros' Quantum Group of Funds and the acclaimed world's most successful investor, shareholder Warren Edward Buffett, all pale in comparison and appear lackluster.

The world blindly pursues short-term trend arbitrage, preferring to add ornaments to the already good, unwilling to help when needed, and even less willing to accompany high-tech enterprises in their growth. This is something worth reflecting on.

What are the main tools of the relatively accurate framework for investing and trading weapon libraries, both soft and hard?

1. Baum-Welch algorithm model. Requires improvement and practical application.

2. Hidden Markov model. Requires improvement and practical application.

3. Quantitative calculation of the differential geometric trajectory equation of the profit chip ratio function.

4. Setting of parameters (also called variable parameters), and how to make correct and reasonable choices within a relatively reasonable range when quantification is not possible.

Having a deep understanding of the original weaknesses of human nature - greed and fear - as mentioned by God in the Bible, being able to read the human nature and psychology behind the key candlestick patterns in the key candlestick chart formations.Cannot be quantified.）。

Choose symbols worthy of ownership and investment with long-term upward trends.

Trust stocks for investment, do not invest in doubtful stocks.

In most cases, giving timely help is more important and meaningful than adding beauty to the already beautiful.

Holding stocks for a big rise: Billionaire Ronald Stephen Baron predicts that Tesla's future price will increase sixfold, rising to $1500!

The most important and core thing is to overcome the trials of time and space in major fluctuations, especially in significant downward movements, with unwavering beliefs.

The vast majority of people cannot do it, due to the human weaknesses - greed and fear. The stock god Warren Edward Buffett is not a role that anyone can handle. Similarly, the gambling god James Harris Simons, who has outperformed the stock god Warren Edward Buffett and financial giant George Soros for 27 consecutive years, is also beyond the reach of one of the world's top mathematicians. Applied mathematics is particularly challenging, as seen by how the youngest James Harris Simons passed away before the older Warren Edward Buffett and George Soros. Many people especially despise theoretical physics and applied mathematics, not to mention pure mathematics.

The Book of Ecclesiastes in the Old Testament of the Bible.:

1:2 The Preacher says: Vanity of vanities, all is vanity.

1:2 Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.

1:3 What profit hath a man of all his labour which he taketh under the sun?

1:4 One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth forever.

One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.

The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.

The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.

All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.

All things are full of weariness; a man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

All things are full of labor; man cannot express it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

The thing that has already existed is what will exist again, and what has been done is what will be done; there is no new thing under the sun.

Is there anything that people can point to and say: this is new? No, for it has already existed in the generations before us.

Is there anything that can truly be considered new? No, it has already existed in the old times, before us.

The past generations are forgotten, and the future ones will also be forgotten by those who come later.

There is no remembrance of past things, and there will be no remembrance of things to come by those who will come after.

I, the Preacher, was king over Israel in Jerusalem.

I devoted myself to seeking and exploring all the works done under heaven with wisdom, and I realized that God has given mankind a very heavy burden.

And I gave my heart to seek and search out by wisdom concerning all things that are done under heaven: this sore travail hath God given to the sons of man to be exercised therewith.

I saw everything done under the sun, and it was all meaningless, a chasing after the wind.

I have seen all the works that are done under the sun; and, behold, all is vanity and vexation of spirit.

Crooked things cannot be made straight, and what is lacking cannot be counted.

That which is crooked cannot be made straight: and that which is wanting cannot be numbered.

In my thoughts, I considered that I had gained great wisdom surpassing all who were in Jerusalem before me; in addition, my heart has experienced much wisdom and knowledge.

I said in my heart, "Behold, I have become great and have increased in wisdom more than anyone who has ruled over Jerusalem before me; and my mind has observed a lot of wisdom and knowledge."

I devoted myself to understand wisdom and also madness and folly; I realized that this too is like chasing the wind.

And I set my heart to understand wisdom, and to understand madness and folly: I perceived that this is also a striving after wind.

For with much wisdom comes much sorrow; the more knowledge, the more grief.

In much wisdom is much vexation, and he who increases knowledge increases sorrow.

Adding positions: buy on declines, not on rallies; reducing positions: sell on rallies, not on declines.

Buy on dips and declines, systematically and gradually, in stages, with a discrete random variable approach for position building.

Establish a defensive fund and a deep fall repurchase fund;

More than 60% of the positions are used for medium to long-term value investments;

Not more than 30% of the positions are used for short-term trend air combat;

With investment as the main focus, and trading as the secondary, a surgical and relatively accurate framework investment trading approach.

If you study theoretical physics, you will know that the projects under Elon Musk are not only a complete Artificial Intelligence industry chain, but also almost all involve a higher level dominant industry of the next 30-50 years—quantum technology revolution.

If you are studying applied mathematics, you can understand that this listed company has extraordinary actions and lofty goals through function-level quantitative analysis. It is far from what you can see now and imagine. The crux of the problem lies in the fact that the range of variables that can be set is too large. If you cannot coexist with uncertainty, deny, and refuse the emerging things still in a vague stage, you will also lose your future.

Investment trading arbitrage ultimately depends on the results, isn't it? When you look at it from a lifelong perspective, what you see is the era and human nature, and what you see is the law.

When you look at it from a ten-year perspective, what you see is common sense and rule changes.

When you look at it from a three-year or five-year perspective, what you see is courage and foresight.

When you look at it from a one-year perspective, you will believe in talent and ability.

If you look at it from a daily perspective and you don't have a background in theoretical physics and applied mathematics, you are likely to see nothing and only rely on miracles and luck.

Being both fallen people in the stock world, why do we need to blow our own horns when we meet again?

Investment master Peter Lynch said:"In the past 70 years of history, there have been 40 stock market crashes. Even if I predicted 39 of them in advance and sold all stocks before the crash, I would still regret it greatly. Because, even in the worst stock market crash, stock prices will eventually rise back, and rise even higher than before."

Excellent companies will continue to achieve historical highs, can withstand bull and bear markets. For excellent companies, bear markets are only temporary, bull markets are eternal.

Tesla started at $1.13 per share on June 29, 2010, incurring losses and being unprofitable... lingering at a low stock price for a long time, over 90% of the original participants sold their cheap Tesla stocks in deep disappointment. It wasn't until August 26, 2018, about 8 years later, that Tesla skyrocketed to a peak of $371.

Is it difficult to hold stocks for 6-8 years? (Do what you like or what you should do, right?)

This is almost a 33,000% increase...

Instead of liking random predictions without technical basis support, being bullish and bearish, it's better to steadily buy on dips, with a plan and step by step, in gradients and batches, dealing with discrete random variables, and laying out positions. Speculation can never beat strategic investment.

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70206596 : The 2/8 law is suitable for use anywhere...

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Elias Chen OP 70206596 : It's not something2/8It's a matter of law, but the thinking in the mind has been soaked in the wrong dirty water and swollen and diseased, making it difficult to function effectively and judge right and wrong. At the end of the day, they are all adults, and it's OK to take full responsibility for all of their investment transactions.

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Elias Chen

成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。

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