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The latest quarterly delivery data released by Tesla on Tuesday brought surprising joy to investors. Second-quarter deliveries surpassed market expectations, and very strong energy storage performance sparked bullish sentiment, causing Tesla to rise more than 10% to close at $231.26 on Tuesday. The stock has accumulated a cumulative increase of nearly 17% over the first two trading days in July. Technically, Tesla broke the 200-day moving average for the first time in six months, which is another positive factor in the stock's trend. Compared to three weeks ago, market sentiment has reversed, and Tesla has strongly rebounded 38% from a low of $167.41 in June.

Following delivery of the report in the second quarter, the market will shift its focus to Tesla's two other catalytic events, including whether the upcoming earnings report to be released in July will boost stock prices and what impact Robotaxi's debut in early August will have on its artificial intelligence narrative.

Q2 Highlights: Tesla Deliveries Beat Consensus, Energy Storage Surprise

Tesla reported deliveries of 4.44 million units in the second quarter, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of 4.39 million units and securing its status as the world's best-selling electric vehicle. This impressive result was driven by various factors, such as incentives offered by Tesla, including 0% or low interest rate financing in several regions, and the Model 3 remote variant that recently requalified individual retirement account tax credits in the US. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, Tesla's second-quarter report is considered “the first positive car surprise of the year.”

Furthermore, Tesla allocated 9.4 GWh of energy storage in the second quarter, a record high, driving Tesla's energy storage deployment to 13.5 GWh in the first half of this year and close to 14.724 GWh for the whole of last year. Tesla's energy storage business mainly consists of two products, Powerwall and Megapack. This business is considered Tesla's key card and a key winner in Morgan Stanley's next round of AI investments.

According to Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, the huge power demand for artificial intelligence data centers will make Tesla a key player in the US energy market. He predicts that Tesla Energy's revenue for fiscal year 2024 will exceed $7 billion, and profit margins may surpass Tesla's automotive business by 2025. By 2030, Tesla Energy will make a significant contribution to Tesla's overall profitability.

Tesla's latest earnings and Robotaxi Day: The next big thing to watch for is that delivery data is only one of the short-term factors affecting Tesla's stock price. Over the next six weeks, investors will face two more key events, the latest earnings report and the debut of Robotaxi. ● Prepare for upcoming earnings: Should investors make short-term bets on Tesla's pre- and post-earnings models? Analysts lowered their second-quarter earnings estimates for Tesla as they lowered their second-quarter earnings expectations. The company's slowing car sales have been priced, and lower profit expectations mean that the threshold for meeting expectations is also lower. This potential revenue management could be another factor affecting Tesla's stock price. Historical data shows that over the past few years, Tesla's stock price suffered a setback in the two weeks before the earnings announcement and then rebounded in the next two weeks. Specifically, over the past 12 earnings cycles, Tesla's stock price fell by an average of 2.9% in the two weeks before the earnings were announced, and then rose by an average of 6.7% in the two weeks after the announcement. Tesla's pre- and post-earnings models provide around 10% of the betting space. Furthermore, traders are increasingly optimistic about Tesla's stock price in the summer, as July has always been a good month for Tesla. In the nine years since 2015, Tesla's stock price has risen six times in July.

Tesla's Robotaxi Day: A defining moment in its growth trajectory Elon Musk has previously stated that Tesla's long-term value will be driven by artificial intelligence and robots. Robotaxi's debut on August 8 will mark a historic milestone in the company's progress in autonomous driving, during which time Tesla will present its full autonomous driving (FSD) capabilities and future vision to the public. This event could become another catalyst for Tesla's stock price and reaffirm the company's important role and growth prospects as a player in the artificial intelligence industry. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes that autonomous driving and the FSD vision are key factors in Tesla's valuation exceeding $1 trillion. The latest version of FSD v12.4 and ongoing FSD testing in China are seen as a turning point for the company.

Divergent views: Wall Street's bullish and bearish views are divided on whether Tesla's current rally can continue.

●Bullish outlook:

Optimism mainly revolves around the recovery in demand for electric vehicles, Tesla's artificial intelligence narrative, the energy storage business, and the growth potential of fully autonomous Robotaxi services. Morgan Stanley's long-term Tesla bull market and analyst Adam Jonas is optimistic about Tesla's new energy and energy storage business, and gave Tesla an overweight rating and a market-leading target price of $310. Wedbush's Dan Ives is also optimistic, saying Tesla's electric car demand story is returning, and the worst was over before the historic Robotics Day on August 8. He raised Tesla's target price for the next 12 months from $275 to $300 and predicted that the stock would double to $400 by 2025. CFRA's Garrett Nelson believes Tesla's delivery data was significantly better than expected, greatly alleviating concerns about weak demand for electric vehicles, and raising the target price for the next 12 months by $20 to $250.

●Bearish outlook:

Bearishness still expresses concerns about Tesla's fundamentals and believes that Tesla's leading position in electric vehicle sales in the US is declining. According to Motor Intelligence data, Tesla accounted for nearly half of US electric vehicle sales in May, further shrinking compared to about 60% in the same period last year. Additionally, 12 of the 15 technical indicators that Moomo tracks are sending warning signals that the stock may be overbought. Wells Fargo recently included Tesla on its “list of tactical ideas” for the third quarter, calling it underweight. Wells Fargo estimates that the company's automotive gross profit margin (excluding credit) will drop 210 basis points year over year in the second quarter due to possible further price cuts and lower sales volumes. It remains concerned about the moderate trend observed in all three major Tesla regions (US, EU, and China). Tesla has few options to increase sales other than pricing and model updates, according to Wells Fargo. Tesla is a “growth stock” with no growth potential. The stock price bubble is huge, and there is still room for up to 91% decline. The minimum is likely to drop to $14.