The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting and trends in the dollar and yen
✔️ Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting on the 2nd day to hold specific discussions on reducing government bond purchases. Discussions on reductions in government bond purchases, which have continued even after the policy change in March this year, are an important step towards normalizing monetary policy. At the meeting on the first day, nine policy committee members, including Governor Ueda, discussed the impact of the depreciation of the yen on prices and the financial environment after the negative interest rate policy was lifted in March. At the meeting on the 14th, it is planned to decide on the policy management policy for the time being.
✔️ Reduction in government bond purchases
Currently, the Bank of Japan buys government bonds of around 6 trillion yen per month, and it is important what kind of message is sent to the market by reducing this amount. While there is an opinion that the reduction should be shown in a form that is easy to understand in the market, there are also concerns that if the amount or pace is limited too much, flexibility will be lost, and there is a risk that interest rates will rise more than expected. It is expected that discussions will be held for the Bank of Japan to increase the range in purchase amounts and gradually reduce them, and to indicate when to reduce the amount. The Bank of Japan's government bond purchase trends are also expected to have an impact on exchange rates through fluctuations in interest rates, and as the historic depreciation of the yen continues, market interest is also growing.
✔️ The trend of the dollar to yen
There is a possibility that the Bank of Japan's monetary policy changes will have a major impact on the dollar-yen exchange rate.
1. Effects of monetary policy
The Bank of Japan's government bond purchase cuts and interest rate hikes are factors that strengthen the yen, and there is a possibility that the dollar yen will fall. This is because the value of yen increases relatively.
2. US monetary policy
US Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) policy trends also have a major impact on the dollar yen. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates, it will cause the dollar to rise, making it easier for the dollar to rise. Therefore, it is necessary to keep a close eye not only on the Bank of Japan's policies, but also on the Fed's trends. 3. Announcement of economic indicators Economic indicators in Japan and the United States, especially data such as inflation rates and GDP growth rates, also affect exchange rates. When these indicators exceed market expectations, major fluctuations in the value of the currency may occur.
✔️ Market prospects and investment strategies
Currently, it is important to determine the market's reaction to the Bank of Japan's policy changes. Investors are required to pay attention to the Bank of Japan's policy announcements and post-meeting statements, and develop strategies in response to them. In particular, as the depreciation of the yen progresses, the focus will be on what kind of attitude the Bank of Japan will show.
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