Tailwinds of a weakening yen and rising high-tech stocks, the direction of the Tokyo market before the CPI announcement.
① Rise in US high-tech stocks: Nvidia up 4%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) also up more than 1%. Positive impact on Japanese high-tech and semiconductor-related stocks.
② Weakening yen trend: Yen depreciation against the dollar is a tailwind for export-related stocks. Particularly beneficial for automobile, electronic equipment, and industrial product manufacturers.
③ Headwinds for energy stocks: WTI crude oil futures decline, posing headwinds for energy-related stocks (INPEX, ENEOS, etc).
④ Cautious stance ahead of US CPI release: With the US September CPI release pending tomorrow, market reaction will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy, prompting cautious movements.
⑤ Domestics political influence: Prime Minister Ishiba is planning to dissolve the House of Representatives. Attention is on policies and market impacts for the upcoming election.
⑥ Hong Kong stock market decline and Middle East situation risks: The instability of the Hong Kong stock market and the Middle East situation pose risks to the market.
⑦ Vigilance on large hurricanes: Hurricanes approaching the southern United States may impact energy supply and the economy.
Looking at market trends, there are several factors that are positively influencing, while also containing many elements of instability.
In particular, the strong rebound of US high-tech stocks and yen depreciation are tailwinds for the Tokyo market, creating expectations for the movement of export-related and high-tech stocks.
Similarly, semiconductor-related stocks can be expected to grow in the global market, which I feel is a positive development for the Japanese economy.
On the other hand, the market is cautious ahead of the US CPI release, headwinds for energy stocks due to the decline in WTI crude oil prices, and the ongoing risks posed by the Hong Kong stock market decline and Middle East situation instability.
In the midst of these complex interplaying factors, it can be predicted that there is a high possibility of increased risk aversion maneuvers in the afternoon session.
Furthermore, Prime Minister Ishiba's dissolution of the House of Representatives may also bring about political uncertainty in the market, and depending on the election results and policy direction, it may cause significant market waves.
As an investor, I believe it is a time to carefully assess these factors and take positions.
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