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Yen depreciation: Breaking into the 154 yen range, the FOMC and BoJ meetings are a turning point.
Movement of the Yen exchange rate
The dollar fell to the upper 154 yen range.
Briefly hitting a low of 154.48 yen, the lowest since November 26th.
Factors
FOMC: A hawkish rate cut stance supports dollar buying.
BOJ: Expectations of deferred rate hikes and dovish outlook lead to yen selling.
US economic indicators: Positive November PMI confirms the strength of the US economy.
Trends in the Gold Market
FOMC: Rate cuts on the 17th and 18th are already priced in.
Bank of Japan: Expectations for rate hikes on the 18th and 19th have dropped to the 10% range.
Viewpoint [Surface]
The trend of a weaker yen continues ahead of the Japan-US policy decision meeting.
The lower target is in the range of 154 yen in the latter half.
Future Focus
Confirmation of the hawkish stance of FOMC.
Will the Bank of Japan indicate a more dovish stance than expected?
Will the strength of the US economic indicators continue?
Short-term outlook
There is a high possibility of the yen continuing to weaken due to the policy divergence between Japan and the US.
The focus is on the decline towards the latter half of the 154 yen level.
【Educational Perspective】
As the yen weakens, it declines to the upper 154 yen level.
Against the backdrop of contrasting monetary policies between Japan and the US, the Fed has priced in a rate cut, but a hawkish stance is supporting a stronger dollar.
On the other hand, there is a growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will hold off on raising interest rates, leading to an increase in selling pressure on the yen.
Furthermore, the strong results of the US economic indicators (November PMI) are also supporting buying pressure on the dollar.
In particular, the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States is once again attracting attention, with a high possibility of the trend towards a stronger dollar and weaker yen continuing.
In the short term, the 154 yen range is considered a support level, but depending on the outcomes of the FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings, there is also a risk of accelerated depreciation of the yen.
The market is sensitive to policy details, and in the event of a dovish surprise, further strengthening of the dollar is expected.
FOMC: Rate cuts on the 17th and 18th are already priced in.
Bank of Japan: Expectations for rate hikes on the 18th and 19th have dropped to the 10% range.
Viewpoint [Surface]
The trend of a weaker yen continues ahead of the Japan-US policy decision meeting.
The lower target is in the range of 154 yen in the latter half.
Future Focus
Confirmation of the hawkish stance of FOMC.
Will the Bank of Japan indicate a more dovish stance than expected?
Will the strength of the US economic indicators continue?
Short-term outlook
There is a high possibility of the yen continuing to weaken due to the policy divergence between Japan and the US.
The focus is on the decline towards the latter half of the 154 yen level.
【Educational Perspective】
As the yen weakens, it declines to the upper 154 yen level.
Against the backdrop of contrasting monetary policies between Japan and the US, the Fed has priced in a rate cut, but a hawkish stance is supporting a stronger dollar.
On the other hand, there is a growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will hold off on raising interest rates, leading to an increase in selling pressure on the yen.
Furthermore, the strong results of the US economic indicators (November PMI) are also supporting buying pressure on the dollar.
In particular, the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States is once again attracting attention, with a high possibility of the trend towards a stronger dollar and weaker yen continuing.
In the short term, the 154 yen range is considered a support level, but depending on the outcomes of the FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings, there is also a risk of accelerated depreciation of the yen.
The market is sensitive to policy details, and in the event of a dovish surprise, further strengthening of the dollar is expected.
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