The discrepancy between NFP and the unemployment rate

It shows the strength of employment in the United States that was announced the other dayNFP(Number of people employed in the non-farm sector) (compared to the previous month) showed strong results.

ThisStock depreciationIt's a factor.

It was announced at the same timeunemployment ratehas risen, indicating weak employment.

ThisStock heightIt's a factor.

Originally,unemployment rateIf it risesNFPis supposed to weaken, but that's not happening.

There are several reasons, and one of themIncreased immigrationThere is.

Because immigrants can't get a job right away even if they enter the United StatesunemployedIt can be treated.

Simply put, job hunting in an unfamiliar place takes time.

If immigration is increasing, the labor participation rate should be rising.

Changes in labor participation rates

June announcement (data for May):62.5%

May announcement (April data):62.7%

April announcement (March data):62.7%

According to the data announced this monthLabor participation rateis falling.

Labor participation rateSaying that it is declining indicates that the number of workers is decreasing.

Also in 2019NFPwithunemployment rateThere is a discrepancy between

NFPWhat is the transition of

Announced in January 2019:222,000 people

Announced in February 2019:311,000 people　

Announced in March 2019:33,000 people

unemployment rateWhat is the transition of

Announced in January 2019:3.9%

Announced in February 2019:4.0%

Announced in March 2019:3.8%

hiringWhereas is getting strongerunemployment rateIs risinghiringWhereas it is getting weakerunemployment rateis falling.

This is absolutelyThe oppositeIt is.

At this timeLabor participation rateIs

Announced in January 2019:63.1%

Announced in February 2019:63.2%

Announced in March 2019:63.2%

It was on an upward trend.

Labor participation rateThe fact that it has risen indicates that the number of people seeking work has increased.

Even if the number of jobs increases, if the number of job seekers, which is a parameter, increasesunemployment ratewill rise.

eg

If there are 10 job seekers and 5 people are employed, the unemployment rate is 50%.

Even if there are 15 job seekers and 5 people are employed, the unemployment rate will rise to 67%.

As the number of job seekers, which is the parent number, increases, the unemployment rate tends to rise.

If you take a look at the current situation based on thisLabor participation rateWhereas is going downunemployment rateis rising.

Despite the fact that the number of people who want to get a job is decreasingunemployment rateis rising.

This timeEmployment statisticswithunemployment rateIt is normal to think that the divergence is not due to immigration.

So what's the cause?

The gap between rich and poorIt's open.

This is the cause.

Employment statisticsLooking at the sectors that performed well, what was higher than the average value for the past 12 months

LEISURE HOSPITALITYwithProfessional, scientific and technical servicesIt is.

In particular, the fact that leisure and hospitality is becoming bullish amid a decline in consumptioncontradictoryI'm doing it.

When consumers' wallet strings are tightleisureThat's because I don't think I'm going to spend my money on it.　

leisure industryThe reason it is doing well is because the wealthy are spending money.

The same goes for the housing industry.

People with lower incomes live in rents, so they are being hit by rent increases.

The higher the income earners, the higher the ratio of homeowners, and they have not been hit by the increase in rents.

It's a state where the richer the more money they have.

Because the higher the income earners, the larger the ratio of investmentsStock heightAs a result, assets have been stabilized.

Due to a decline in consumptionunemployment rateIt is increasing, but since high-income earners are spending money, it can be said that only a limited number of sectors are doing well.