The dissolution and execution of the general election on June 23 are the trump cards for stock appreciation!

　On Wall Street, it is said to be Sell in May (stocks sold in May). As is the case with Japan's market quotes for the setsubun ceiling and the bottom of the equinox, this is due to the seasonal investment behavior of institutional investors. In the case of America, individual income tax refunds (just over 40 trillion yen in 2024) were made from February to May. It is a structure where these funds flow into the stock market through mutual funds and support stock appreciation.

　However, that hasn't been the case recently. Rather, the trend of Sell in June (pattern of high price formation from June to July) is strong.

　The same goes for the Japanese market. In the case of Japan, stock buybacks will be announced when the March financial results are announced. Toyota Motor Corporation (7203) is a good example (the total amount is 1 trillion yen, 410 million shares, and a share buyback of 3% of the number of issued shares has been announced). Stock buybacks may have delayed the high price formation period to June.

　Of course, I'm not advocating Sell in June in this situation. It's just a match. Also, there is still a possibility that Prime Minister Kishida will be dissolved and run for a general election at the end of the Diet session on June 23 this year. There are “stock appreciation” anomalies (strange events that cannot be explained) in the dissolution, general election, and stock market.

　Why the dissolution and general election at this timing? They lost 3 times in a row in the House of Representatives by-election, and they also lost the Shizuoka gubernatorial election. There are probably a lot of people who say, “The approval rating is sluggish.” The Tokyo gubernatorial election was announced on 6/20.

　However, this is the only timing. The reason for this is that the rate of increase in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for May will be announced on 6/21. Isn't CPI declining due to free high school tuition in Tokyo and the settling of gasoline prices?

　Certainly, the Kishida administration's approval rating is “25%,” which is an ultra-low altitude flight. After all, the party ticket slush fund issue is echoing. However, the reason why there isn't even an approval rating is mainly “high prices.” It is an unmistakable fact that prices (inflation) and approval ratings are inversely correlated. Consumer prices are likely to calm down, even temporarily, this summer.

　Furthermore, a fixed tax reduction of 40,000 yen per person will be implemented for the June salary. Wage increases will also permeate. Large companies are probably the center, but real income will turn positive from June to July. Pensions will be raised 2.7% from 6/14 payments. It is estimated to be an increase of 6,000 yen (welfare pension) in a model household with two married couples.

　The current market price (in particular, indices such as the Nikkei Stock Average) has fallen into a “high price” trade market, but momentum for individual shopping is extremely strong. After that, as mentioned above, I'm asking for a dissolution and general election. This is an ordinary expression, but it is judged that the investment tactic of looking at trees without looking at the forest (without talking about general arguments, stock competition) is effective.

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