ドル円相場の行方：日銀会合と米イベントが左右する短期的リスク
①米金利上昇の影響
・米経済指標の堅調さで米10年国債利回り4.30％に上昇、円安圧力。
・金利スワップ市場で年内利下げ期待が後退し、ドル需要増加。
②日銀の金融政策と市場期待
Bank of Japan's policy is expected to remain unchanged at the BOJ meeting, and attention is on Governor Kuroda's remarks.
The movement of the yen will fluctuate depending on the timing of additional rate hikes and the economic and price outlook.
③ Important events in the USA
US employment statistics over the weekend and next week's US presidential election will impact the USD/JPY exchange rate.
In a risk-on scenario, the dollar may strengthen, while in a risk-off scenario, the yen may strengthen.
④ Market volatility and sentiment
Currently, there is a lack of direction in the market (between the upper 152 yen level and lower 153 yen level).
End-of-month actual demand trading may create temporary pressure.
Conclusion.
- Maintaining President Ueda's dovish stance may put a halt on the rise of USD/JPY.
- Strong US employment statistics support a higher dollar, increasing the risk of yen depreciation.
- Depending on the US presidential election and economic indicators, there is a possibility of USD/JPY having a clear direction.
【Educational Perspective】
The current USD/JPY exchange rate is being pressured towards yen depreciation by rising US interest rates supported by strong US economic indicators. However, the direction is unclear as the Bank of Japan meeting and President Ueda's press conference are imminent.
- The market is expecting the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policies, but any comments regarding interest rate hikes could be a surprise factor.
With the US employment statistics coming out over the weekend and the upcoming presidential election next week, the short-term volatility of USD/JPY is expected to increase.
In conclusion, if the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance, there is a high possibility that the yen will continue to depreciate, and depending on US indicators, there is also a risk of further depreciation of the yen.
・米経済指標の堅調さで米10年国債利回り4.30％に上昇、円安圧力。
・金利スワップ市場で年内利下げ期待が後退し、ドル需要増加。
②日銀の金融政策と市場期待
Bank of Japan's policy is expected to remain unchanged at the BOJ meeting, and attention is on Governor Kuroda's remarks.
The movement of the yen will fluctuate depending on the timing of additional rate hikes and the economic and price outlook.
③ Important events in the USA
US employment statistics over the weekend and next week's US presidential election will impact the USD/JPY exchange rate.
In a risk-on scenario, the dollar may strengthen, while in a risk-off scenario, the yen may strengthen.
④ Market volatility and sentiment
Currently, there is a lack of direction in the market (between the upper 152 yen level and lower 153 yen level).
End-of-month actual demand trading may create temporary pressure.
Conclusion.
- Maintaining President Ueda's dovish stance may put a halt on the rise of USD/JPY.
- Strong US employment statistics support a higher dollar, increasing the risk of yen depreciation.
- Depending on the US presidential election and economic indicators, there is a possibility of USD/JPY having a clear direction.
【Educational Perspective】
The current USD/JPY exchange rate is being pressured towards yen depreciation by rising US interest rates supported by strong US economic indicators. However, the direction is unclear as the Bank of Japan meeting and President Ueda's press conference are imminent.
- The market is expecting the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policies, but any comments regarding interest rate hikes could be a surprise factor.
With the US employment statistics coming out over the weekend and the upcoming presidential election next week, the short-term volatility of USD/JPY is expected to increase.
In conclusion, if the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance, there is a high possibility that the yen will continue to depreciate, and depending on US indicators, there is also a risk of further depreciation of the yen.
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