The future of the US economy
announced on October 4, 2024 by the USAUnemployment rateis4.1%And it shocked the market.
It is because the US economy has been performing better than expected.
The only thing I want to keep in mind isUnemployment rateWhen gold rises and enters a recession, there have been instances of it rising, falling, and then rising again before a sharp decline in stock prices.
That is the point.
Soft landing.When heading towardsEntering an economic downturnIt's true that it's difficult to distinguish when they look exactly alike when heading there.
It's easy to say that we should learn from the past, but we are already lacking in objectivity due to news and social media.biasand are lacking in composure.
Many peopleInterpretationDue to having interpretations, even when presented with one piece of data, how it is interpreted varies depending on the individual.
It is good to make the correct judgment, but humans are creatures of assumptions.Humansare creatures of assumptions.AssumptionsIf assumptions cannot be made,Decision-makingCannot do.
DetermineIf you cannot make a decision, you cannot determine whether to invest or not.
Considering all possibilitiesIndecisiveBecoming a person who becomes unable to do anything.
What is important in investing isPeople make mistakesThis is important.
Because peopleare creatures of assumption.
One of the weights on the American economy isInflationIt is.
that prices are not dropping easily. It is better than before, but still considered high.
Due to this high cost of living, strikes for wage increases often occur.And as a result, wages are rising.Product prices are increasing to cover the costs of wage increases, which is hindering stabilization.
It can be said that it is now in a state where a stock price increase is unlikely to occur.InflationIn order to cover the cost of wage increases, product prices are rising and hampering stabilization.
Wage increases are leading to strikes for higher wages.As a result, wages are rising and the situation is becoming unfavorable for salary increases.
Case-Shiller Home Price IndexHas been declining since June.
This is.Good signIt is.
If home prices drop, there will be an increase in home buyers, leading to a decrease in rental prices.Which will yield positive results.
CPIThe decrease may create an illusion of approaching inflation stabilization.It seems that consumers are concerned about the housing prices being higher.It is still in a high state.
The USA is a completeautomobile societywith worse public safety than Japan.
It is difficult to understand the US economy with a Japanese sense.
In america, when you want to live in a safe area, naturallyResidential prices and rents are rising.It is.
Japanese people think it's better to live in a cheap place, but that's difficult in the usa.
In america, even if the cost is high, not living there can be dangerous.
Families with young children cannot live in unsafe areas.
Will residential prices and rents decrease?This significantly contributes to stock price increases.
In the futurewage increase strikesis expected to increase disorderly.
This is similar to the situation of the 1970sstagflationwhere prices are high! Give higher wages! If this happens, other workers will do the same, permanently.
price levelsContinues to rise.
In the endWage increase strikeResolved by having the workers understand that even with wage increase strikes, prices would still rise.
Stickiness of inflationWill go much higher than we imagine.
The selling price of carsHas risen, and as a result,Auto insurance premiumis also increasing.
Car societyFor the United States, this issue is serious.
For this reason as wellSoft landing.it is recognized that it will be quite some time before it is considered certain.
USA stocksIf there are no other promising investment targets, there is a possibility of a gradual increase.
USA stocksThe possibility of a crash is low, and in the current environment, there is a slight possibility of an increase.
This is not because American stocks are superior, but because it is the best investment target.Betterinvestment target.
Even if interest rates start to decline, it does not change the fact that interest rates have been high for a long time.
Already 3 banks have collapsed, FTX bankruptcy, Number Holdings bankruptcy, Express bankruptcy, Big Lots bankruptcy.
Financial and private companies are going bankrupt.
At first glance, this may seem like gloomy news, butContributes to inflation stabilizationContributes to it.
When companies go bankrupt, it means that consumer purchasing desire is declining, Heading towards inflation stabilizationcan be said.
The fact that the spread of the coronavirus has changed consumers' minds and existing store operations are no longer working well.
Online shoppinghas emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its solidification is one of the factors contributing to the wave of bankruptcies.
In the futureAftermath of the COVID-19 pandemicandAftermath of high interest ratesThere may be an increase in companies going bankrupt due to the double punch of the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftermath of high interest rates.
Financial statement manipulationThere may be companies that are doing it. It is important not to be overly excited or worried about the ups and downs of stock prices.
In the 1990s,Microsoftmicrosoft sent windows out into the world, creating a positive deflationary impact.Attention is also focused on how much AI contributes to deflation.The progress of technology lowers production costs in the short term, so the moderation of inflation
Progress in technology reduces production costs in the short term, leading to a moderation in inflation.Moderation of inflationContributes to.
With the rise of Windows, personal computers have become more accessible.
For example, in the past, when looking for job openings, it was basic to go to a bookstore and search through job magazines, which was very inefficient and each resume had to be handwritten.
Nowadays, job searches can be done online, and resumes can easily be sent in PDF format.
Before the internet became prevalent, print media was the mainstream, involving costs for printing and distribution.
In today's internet-based society, the costs of printing and distribution have been reduced.
AINew technologies like AI contribute to cost reduction.Inflation stabilizationwill promote.
In the short term,AIrise and bankruptcies of private companieswill lead tobankruptcies.Unemployment rateFor the USA, even if the price increase may lead to inflation, it will ultimately be a favorable factor.
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Kimihiko : There is also the view of a rapid increase in presidential election staff.
Bull・Bear : Great analytical skills.
Kimihiko Bull・Bear : Seasonal adjustments are made monthly, but not annually.