The future of the US economy
Announced on October 4, 2024, in the USAUnemployment Rateis4.1%And it shocked the market.
It is because the US economy has been recognized as stronger than expected.
One thing to keep in mind isunemployment rateWhen the unemployment rate rises and the economy enters a recession, there have been several occurrences of the stock price initially increasing, then decreasing, and rising sharply again.
That is what it means.
Achieving a soft landing.When heading towards.Entering an economic downturn.It is true that it is difficult to distinguish between the two when heading towards a situation that is very similar.
It is easy to say we should learn from the past, but we are already losing our composure due to news and social media.Biases.Causing us to lack calmness.
Humans have many.InterpretationDue to having different interpretations, even when presented with the same data, how to interpret it varies depending on the individual.
It is good to make the correct judgment, but people are creatures who rely on intuition.IntuitionIf you cannot rely on intuition,IntuitionIf you cannot rely on intuition,DecisionCannot be done.
DetermineIf you cannot decide, you cannot decide whether to invest or not.
If you consider all possibilitiesIndecisiveBecoming someone who cannot do anything and becomes indecisive.
What is important in investing isHumans make mistakesThis is important.
Because peopleare creatures of assumptionis why.
One of the burdens on the US economyInflationIt is.
that prices are not dropping easily. It is better than before, but still considered high.
Due to this high cost of living, strikes for wage increases often occur.Wage increase strikeProduct prices are increasing to cover the costs of wage increases, which is hindering stabilization.
It can be said that it is now in a state where a stock price increase is unlikely to occur.InflationIn order to cover the cost of wage increases, product prices are rising and hampering stabilization.
Wage increases are leading to strikes for higher wages.As a result, wages are rising and the situation is becoming unfavorable for salary increases.
Case-Shiller Home Price IndexHas been declining since June.
This is.Good signIt is.
If home prices drop, there will be an increase in home buyers, leading to a decrease in rental prices.Which will yield positive results.is expected to be effective.
will impede CPI decrease.The decrease may create an illusion of approaching inflation stabilization.It seems that consumers are concerned about the housing prices being higher.It is still in a high state.
The USA is a completeCar societywith worse public safety than Japan.
It is difficult to understand the US economy with a Japanese sense.
In america, when you want to live in a safe area, naturallyResidential prices and rents are rising.
Japanese people think it's better to live in a cheap place, but that's difficult in the usa.
In america, even if the cost is high, not living there can be dangerous.
Families with young children cannot live in unsafe areas.
Will residential prices and rents decrease?This significantly contributes to stock price increases.
In the futureWage increase strikeis expected to increase disorderly.
This is from the 1970s.stagflationwhere prices are high! Give higher wages! If this happens, other workers will do the same, permanently.
situation.price levelsContinues to rise.
In the endWage increase strike.Resolved by having the workers understand that even with wage increase strikes, prices would still rise.
Stickiness of inflationWill go much higher than we imagine.
The selling price of carsHas risen, and as a result,Auto insurance premiumis also increasing.
Auto societyFor the United States, this issue is serious.
For this reason as wellSoft landingit is recognized that it will be quite some time before it is considered certain.
USA stocksIf there are no other promising investment targets, there is a possibility of a gradual increase.
American stocksThe possibility of a crash is low, and in the current environment, there is a slight possibility of an increase.
This is not because American stocks are superior, but because it is the best investment target.Betterinvestment target.
Even if interest rates start to decline, it does not change the fact that interest rates have been high for a long time.
Already 3 banks have collapsed, FTX bankruptcy, Number Holdings bankruptcy, Express bankruptcy, Big Lots bankruptcy.
Financial and private companies are going bankrupt.
At first glance, this may seem like gloomy news, butcontributes to inflation easingContributes to.
When companies go bankrupt, it means that consumer purchasing desire is declining, Inflation stabilizationcan be said.
The fact that the spread of the coronavirus has changed consumers' minds and existing store operations are no longer working well.
Online shoppinghas emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its solidification is one of the factors contributing to the wave of bankruptcies.
In the future as wellAftermath of the COVID-19 pandemicとAftermath of high interest ratesThere may be an increase in companies going bankrupt due to the double punch of the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftermath of high interest rates.
Financial statement manipulationThere may be companies that are doing it. It is important not to be overly excited or worried about the ups and downs of stock prices.
In the 1990s,Microsoftmicrosoft sent windows out into the world, creating a positive deflationary impact.AIThe progress of technology lowers production costs in the short term, so the moderation of inflation
Progress in technology reduces production costs in the short term, leading to a moderation in inflation.Stabilization of inflationContributes to.
With the rise of Windows, personal computers have become more accessible.
For example, in the past, when looking for job openings, it was basic to go to a bookstore and search through job magazines, which was very inefficient and each resume had to be handwritten.
Nowadays, job searches can be done online, and resumes can easily be sent in PDF format.
Before the internet became prevalent, print media was the mainstream, involving costs for printing and distribution.
In today's internet-based society, the costs of printing and distribution have been reduced.
AINew technologies like AI contribute to cost reduction.Inflation stabilizationwill promote.
In the short term,Artificial Intelligencerise and bankruptcies of private companieswill lead tobankruptcies.Unemployment rateFor the USA, even if the price increase may lead to inflation, it will ultimately be a favorable factor.
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Kimihiko : There is also the view of a rapid increase in presidential election staff.
Bull・Bear : Great analytical skills.
Kimihiko Bull・Bear : Seasonal adjustments are made monthly, but not annually.