The market is in turmoil due to the biggest crash ever, and developments searching for a place to settle down will continue

On the morning of the 8th, the Bank of Japan announced the “main opinions” of the monetary policy meeting held from 7/30 to 31. According to the main opinion, “Assuming the achievement of the “price stability target” in the latter half of fiscal year 2025, policy interest rates should be raised to neutral interest rates in order to that end. Neutral interest rates are estimated to be at least 1%, but in order to avoid rapid interest rate increases, it is necessary to raise interest rates in a timely and gradual manner while confirming the reaction of the economy and prices.” Since that was the case, doubts remain in the market as to whether the Bank of Japan is the “pigeon faction” or the “hawk faction.” The main opinion is from July 30 to 31, so it seems that Bank of Japan Vice Governor Uchida's statement on 8/7 can be taken as the Bank of Japan's current thoughts, but it seems that market uncertainty cannot be dispelled unless you listen to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's talk. If Bank of Japan Governor Ueda were to attend the August 22-24 meeting in Jackson Hole, there would be interest in his remarks at the meeting.

The Nikkei Average is likely to return, but since it has not fully returned on a weekly basis, there is still a sense of caution about the “second bottom” in the market, as during past crashes. Black Monday in 1987 crashed on 10/20 and then hit the 10/20 low on 11/11. Also, during the 2008 to 2009 subprime shock, Japanese stocks plummeted from October, the month following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and the search for lower prices continued until March of the following year. Since the Nikkei Average VI has skyrocketed, there is still a possibility that stock price indices such as the Nikkei Average and TOPIX will move more than expected. While expecting a rebound, I would like to be wary for the time being of a double bottom that falls below the closing price of 31458.42 yen on the 5th and the low price of 31156.12 yen during trading hours.

Since the government issued temporary information on the Nankai Trough earthquake, speculations about repairs and land resilience are intensifying, so I would like to pay attention to companies that are top class in concrete repairs. Since large-scale construction of the expressway is currently underway, I think it is easy to get interested.

I would like to look forward to the movement of interim dividends for stocks with financial results for the fiscal year ending February. The interim dividend for the current fiscal year is expected to be 20 yen per share. It is assumed that in response to the depreciation of the yen exchange rate, interest in retail-related matters is likely to increase even as a stock merit of yen appreciation.

Financial results are due to be announced on 8/14. The main stocks in the growth market also fell sharply, but the company did not break the year-to-date low level at the end of May. Since research business support tools will be offered for a fee in September, I expect to review and buy them.