Increase in the number of new home sales in the USA

The USA announced on October 24, 2024 at 23:00Number of new residential construction salesresults compared to the previous month's 0.709 million cases738,000 unitsIt was.

This is future-orientedStocks are rising.This is the factor.

Residences sellingCPI・Core CPIBoth numerical values ​​rise, which leads to lowering interest rates becomes a hindrance.

The shortage of residences is resolved by the sale of houses, leading to a decrease in rent.

If the rent decreasesinterest ratesWill fall further.

interest rateswill decreaseunemployment rateIf it is lowStocks are rising.Will happen.

Announced at 23:00 on October 23rd.Number of used residence sales.Results against the previous month's 3.88 million cases.3.84 million households.It was.

The decline in the housing market contributes to inflation moderation, but in the future, it will lead to a high-interest stagnation phase.To stage a high-interest stagnation phase.for the purpose of staging a high-interest stagnation phase.stock market declineThis is the factor.

Number of used residence sales.Has decreased for the second consecutive month.

Number of new residential construction salesExceeding 0.7 million units, it is gradually recovering to the same level of sales as before in a low interest rate environment.

Number of used residence sales.Considering that it was around 5 million units before the pandemic, it can be said that it has sharply decreased to the latter half of 3 million units.

Even though the high interest rates and the soaring prices of used properties are beginning to stabilize, consumers still feel that they are expensive.

Residence purchases are soaring.Residence insuranceSince the payments for residence purchases overlap, when calculated comprehensively, it turns out to be much cheaper to live in a rental.

Inflation stabilizationThe interest rate cuts that require a long period of time are limited in scope.

was declining.Crude oil futuresThe decline has stopped, Natural gasprices have risen for three consecutive days, Gold pricesand are persistently maintaining high prices.

The gold market seems to be expecting additional interest rate cuts.

According to market forecasts next month 0.25%Additional interest rate cuts are expected.

lowering interest rates If it continues,the residence marketwill recover, but there is also a possibility of inflation accelerating again.

If inflation reignites, interest rate cuts will not occur,Interest rate hikeThere is also a possibility. This is stock market declineThis will be a contributing factor.

lowering interest rates even if the Fed's monetary policy does not trigger inflation resurgence. It is also possible that American consumers have a deflationary mindset and this is because they may be falling into a deflationary mindset.

which indicates a willingness to purchase.CCISince 2022, it has been fluctuating around 100.

Before COVID-19, it was fluctuating around 120-130.

Consumers are overwhelmed by the high prices, leading to a decrease in purchasing desire.

In this situation, lowering interest rates Even in this situation, prices do not decrease.

If prices do not decrease, purchasing desire will not be stimulated, and it can be speculated that the likelihood of reinflation is low.

Of course, this is just one convenient way of thinking.

If you don't think about it, you can never grasp the market. Whether it hits or not is a gambling issue.

The current market is only expanding due to inflation, not coming from prosperity.

Considering the leading nature of stock prices, one might expect the market to turn into a boom.

In order to become prosperous, prices must not fall further.

The current situation is that there is no material indicating a decrease in prices.

Long-term bond yieldsare also showing reluctance to decrease.

The bond marketunemployment rateIf it does not rise, I determine that additional interest rate cuts are limited, and I do not buy bonds.

Long-term interest ratesIf it does not fall, residence loan interest rates will also be reluctant to decrease, and the residence market will inevitably stagnate sooner or later.