The risk that stock prices will plummet will increase, but I am optimistic

There is a risk that stock prices will plummet as early as early April, but thisconjectureIt's just that.

Investors who can win are investors who are willing to lose. When you can win by reducing losses, it is important to win big, and if you only think about winning constantly, you will be greedy and lose a lot.

It's important to have many scenarios. It is important to respond flexibly, keeping in mind that there are times when your own judgment is wrong, and that there are times when market predictions are wrong.

Once you decide on the future, you won't be able to win.

What is likely to plummet in AprilThe unemployment rate is around 3.8%This is because I think that CPI and core PCE will not decline due to the trend, and it will be difficult to predict when interest rate cuts will occur.

Situations where a sharp drop in stock prices in April does not occur is a pattern where CPI falls little by little. If this phenomenon occurs, I think the temporary peak of stock prices will shift from June to September.

What do I personally fear the most, and what I think is highly probableThe unemployment rate fell below 3.4% to 3.3%It's about becoming. If this numerical unemployment rate is announced after April, stock prices will plummet at a tremendous speed.

For example, if there is an obvious gradual decline, with the unemployment rate announced in February being 3.7% and the unemployment rate announced in March being 3.6%, it is better to be quite alert.

I amunemployment rateThis is the reason I want you to pay attention to it.

As I explained in my previous post, a sharp drop in stock prices encourages future stock appreciation, so I'm not pessimistic, but rather optimistic.

If stock prices crash as of April, it will be a factor that will speed up the interest rate cut period, and it will create a fairly large stock appreciation phase.

Conversely, when a stock crash does not occur and it remains soft. It's not very encouraging because it increases the risk of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate.

If the risk of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate increases,goldIn order to give a tailwind or blow to commodities, starting with risk hedgingCommodities-related stocksDon't forget to allocate your funds to.