The US Economy's Soft Landing and the Future of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy
Director Cook and Chairman Powell of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced comments on future economic prospects and monetary policy in their respective lectures and congressional testimony. We will analyze in detail the possibility of a soft landing for the US economy and the Fed's policy trends.
✔️ Director Cook's View: Soft Landing Scenario
Fed Director Cook predicts a soft landing (soft landing) of the economy after inflation remains high. The basic scenario suggests the possibility that the inflation rate will decline toward the target over time without a significant rise in the unemployment rate. This is an ideal economic environment where inflation is suppressed while the labor market is strong.
✔️ Chairman Powell's Comment: A Cautious Approach
Chairman Powell said that although inflation has slowed, he is not convinced that it is continuing to slow down toward 2%, which is the Fed's target. Recent price indicators have shown slow progress, and it was emphasized that further good data is needed. Thus, it was once again confirmed that the Fed's decision is data-dependent. Also, although they avoid sending a strong signal about the timing of interest rate cuts, the view is that there is a risk whether action is too early or too late.
Future Prospects [Liberal Arts Views 💡]
From these comments, it can be seen that the Fed is carefully yet actively trying to curb inflation. While inflation is slowing, there is a high possibility that it will still take some time to reach the target. Therefore, it is necessary for the Fed to continue an approach based on data and carefully assess the timing of interest rate cuts. As I've told you, I don't think there will be a single rate cut this year. It is recognized that the cost of cutting interest rates at the moment is too large, and it would be insufficient if interest rates were cut halfway. Also, the decisive factor is that inflation of 3% or less has not been reached since last summer.
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