The U.S. stock market is approaching a major exam!
US stocks are starting to experience a slight retreat from the 6000-point mark, with the market awaiting Nvidia's major test, no need to doubt, if big brother misses, a 5%-10% market retreat is a high probability event, as of November 18 market traders' betting situation.
Nvidia NVDA (earnings report released after market close on October 20): 68% probability centered around $140, fluctuating 7% up and down, $127-$155 range. Recommendation: Sell put options for November 22 at the lower price limit, and sell call options for November 22 at the upper price limit. Friends who want to gamble on the earnings report today must not only buy options in one direction to bet on rise or fall, as the probability of options offsetting each other is high, due to implied volatility (IV > HV), selling options has a 70% probability of making money. Everyone can adjust the number of options contracts based on their own capital strength. If exercised, promptly close at $155, wait for IV to decrease after the earnings report, and then buy the synthetic call for the end of the year at $155. If exercised at $127, hold the stocks until before January 26 with a median value of $130, can't trap people, personally bullish, added an at-the-money call, see the profit curve in the first graph.
Sell Nvidia NVDA 241122 155 call.
Sell Nvidia NVDA 241122 127 put.
Nvidia NVDA (earnings report released after market close on October 20): 68% probability centered around $140, fluctuating 7% up and down, $127-$155 range. Recommendation: Sell put options for November 22 at the lower price limit, and sell call options for November 22 at the upper price limit. Friends who want to gamble on the earnings report today must not only buy options in one direction to bet on rise or fall, as the probability of options offsetting each other is high, due to implied volatility (IV > HV), selling options has a 70% probability of making money. Everyone can adjust the number of options contracts based on their own capital strength. If exercised, promptly close at $155, wait for IV to decrease after the earnings report, and then buy the synthetic call for the end of the year at $155. If exercised at $127, hold the stocks until before January 26 with a median value of $130, can't trap people, personally bullish, added an at-the-money call, see the profit curve in the first graph.
Sell Nvidia NVDA 241122 155 call.
Sell Nvidia NVDA 241122 127 put.
Currently, the long-term interest rates of U.S. bonds are still rising against the backdrop of rate cuts. The key interest rate is currently at 4.5%, encountering resistance in its decline, temporarily easing the threat of repricing the s&p 500. However, the high 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rate indicates that traders have already begun to prepare for inflation, with the Fed's December rate decision shifting towards a rate cut path.
In direct conclusion: Numerous signs indicate that there is a need for a pullback in the large cap currently. If there is a 5%-10% retracement, resolutely increase your positions, as Trump's long-term presidency is extremely bullish for U.S. stocks.
(Image: Vision Capital)
Bitcoin, short-term holding at 0.1 million has not reached millions yet.
IonQ has started to pull back, those who have not boarded the train should wait for the index to fall and then decisively increase their positions.
SMCI may make a comeback, buy a few deep out-of-the-money options, spend a few hundred dollars to bet on tens of times the return. Isn't that attractive?
Wishing everyone to earn a lot and have plenty of money by the end of the year!
Bitcoin, short-term holding at 0.1 million has not reached millions yet.
IonQ has started to pull back, those who have not boarded the train should wait for the index to fall and then decisively increase their positions.
SMCI may make a comeback, buy a few deep out-of-the-money options, spend a few hundred dollars to bet on tens of times the return. Isn't that attractive?
Wishing everyone to earn a lot and have plenty of money by the end of the year!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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