The yen exchange rate remains in the first half of the 147 yen range: prospects as the US CPI and the Japanese political situation intersect
It has been hovering in the first half of the 147 yen per dollar range.
This flat state was greatly influenced by the fact that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was announced the day before, was as expected.
However, it is necessary to keep a close eye on future political unease within Japan and how the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will affect the yen exchange rate.
Impact of CPI: Factors behind the decline in interest rate reduction observations and the appreciation of the dollar
The US CPI for July showed a 3.2% increase from the same month last year, and slowed for the fourth consecutive month.
These results are in line with market expectations, and I don't think there is any material to suggest drastic interest rate cuts.
As a result, expectations about the range of interest rate cuts in September have receded.
As a result, the dollar became relatively strong and weighed against the yen exchange rate.
The dollar-yen exchange rate temporarily fell to the middle of the 147 yen range immediately after the CPI was announced, but then showed a development where it returned to the middle of the 146 yen range.
It can be seen that this movement suggests that market developments with little sense of direction will continue in the future.
Political risks within Japan and their impact on the yen exchange rate
Japan's political situation has brought new uncertainty to the yen exchange rate in the future.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has indicated his intention not to run for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September, and the possibility of his resignation is increasing.
There is a possibility that this political uncertainty will increase the volatility of the yen exchange rate.
When political risk increases, risk aversion usually intensifies, and there is a tendency for yen to be bought.
However, there is a possibility that the yen exchange rate will fluctuate greatly up and down depending on what kind of monetary policy the candidate for the next president sets out, so we cannot let our guard down.
The market is paying attention to how the next governor will approach the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and this point is an important factor affecting the future of the yen exchange rate.
Future outlook: Focus on US economic indicators and Japanese political trends
There is a high possibility that the dollar-yen exchange rate will remain solid due to a retreat in US interest rate cut observations, but as Japan's political uncertainty and the effects of economic indicators intersect, I think developments where it is difficult to grasp a sense of direction will continue.
In particular, since additional economic indicators such as retail sales in the United States may affect future dollar-yen exchange rates, the market needs to keep a close eye on these data.
Conclusion: The future of the yen exchange rate where complex factors are intertwined
In the current situation where multiple factors influence the yen exchange rate, such as US inflation indicators, interest rate cut observations, and Japan's political uncertainty, it is difficult to read short-term movements.
However, it is important to pay attention to economic indicators to be announced in the future and trends in the political situation within Japan and make appropriate decisions.
What kind of movement the yen exchange rate shows depends on how these factors intersect.
This flat state was greatly influenced by the fact that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was announced the day before, was as expected.
However, it is necessary to keep a close eye on future political unease within Japan and how the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will affect the yen exchange rate.
Impact of CPI: Factors behind the decline in interest rate reduction observations and the appreciation of the dollar
The US CPI for July showed a 3.2% increase from the same month last year, and slowed for the fourth consecutive month.
These results are in line with market expectations, and I don't think there is any material to suggest drastic interest rate cuts.
As a result, expectations about the range of interest rate cuts in September have receded.
As a result, the dollar became relatively strong and weighed against the yen exchange rate.
The dollar-yen exchange rate temporarily fell to the middle of the 147 yen range immediately after the CPI was announced, but then showed a development where it returned to the middle of the 146 yen range.
It can be seen that this movement suggests that market developments with little sense of direction will continue in the future.
Political risks within Japan and their impact on the yen exchange rate
Japan's political situation has brought new uncertainty to the yen exchange rate in the future.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has indicated his intention not to run for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September, and the possibility of his resignation is increasing.
There is a possibility that this political uncertainty will increase the volatility of the yen exchange rate.
When political risk increases, risk aversion usually intensifies, and there is a tendency for yen to be bought.
However, there is a possibility that the yen exchange rate will fluctuate greatly up and down depending on what kind of monetary policy the candidate for the next president sets out, so we cannot let our guard down.
The market is paying attention to how the next governor will approach the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and this point is an important factor affecting the future of the yen exchange rate.
Future outlook: Focus on US economic indicators and Japanese political trends
There is a high possibility that the dollar-yen exchange rate will remain solid due to a retreat in US interest rate cut observations, but as Japan's political uncertainty and the effects of economic indicators intersect, I think developments where it is difficult to grasp a sense of direction will continue.
In particular, since additional economic indicators such as retail sales in the United States may affect future dollar-yen exchange rates, the market needs to keep a close eye on these data.
Conclusion: The future of the yen exchange rate where complex factors are intertwined
In the current situation where multiple factors influence the yen exchange rate, such as US inflation indicators, interest rate cut observations, and Japan's political uncertainty, it is difficult to read short-term movements.
However, it is important to pay attention to economic indicators to be announced in the future and trends in the political situation within Japan and make appropriate decisions.
What kind of movement the yen exchange rate shows depends on how these factors intersect.
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【心理学×投資】テクニカル分析/LIVE配信366DAY ＝先進国40：新興国60 /企業案件３社/登壇実績/https://youtu.be/MohM1TGEv6s
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